Friday, May 25, 2012

How Can the Celtics Be Like the Spurs?

"I like role players who aren't very good but have a skill."      
-Gregg Popovich


I already know how this Celtics season is going to end. They'll win Game 7 on Saturday. Then they'll put forth a good effort but ultimately lose in 6 to a Miami team that is healthier and more talented. 


With Bradley out for the season, Ray and Stiemsma shells of themselves, and Pierce and Pietrus severely limited, the Celtics have no one to guard Wade, no bigs to provide solid minutes with KG on the bench, and just a lack of firepower overall. Their season is on the ropes. They would've had a chance against Miami -- maybe even looked like the favorites -- if they could have knocked off Atlanta and Philly in five games apiece, but now, without rest and without Bradley, the odds look insurmountable. 


Meanwhile, across the country, a similarly old and rag-tag team, the San Antonio Spurs, looks like the class of the league and a heavy favorite to knock off Miami if they can get past the Thunder. The Celtics need to become this team. 


Check out the All-NBA teams, released yesterday:


2011-12 ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM 
Forward LeBron James, Miami (118) 596 
Forward Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City (117) 591 
Center Dwight Howard, Orlando (75) 476 
Guard Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (104) 568 
Guard Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers (74) 484 

2011-12 ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM 
Forward Kevin Love, Minnesota (16) 365 
Forward Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers 170 
Center Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers (33) 400 
Guard Tony Parker, San Antonio (41) 367 
Guard Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City (5) 239 

2011-12 ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM 
Forward Carmelo Anthony, New York (1) 154 
Forward Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 136 
Center Tyson Chandler, New York (4) 60 
Guard Dwyane Wade, Miami (1) 235 
Guard Rajon Rondo, Boston (4) 142




Now think about the teams that legitimately contended for the title this year: the Spurs, Thunder, Lakers, and Clippers in the West, and the Bulls and Heat (and until recently, the Celtics) in the East. 


Those contenders fall into two main classes: the superstar-heavy teams (Thunder, Lakers, Clippers, Heat) and the depth teams (Spurs and Bulls). In the first group you have four clubs that each possess two superstars in their prime. By superstar I mean a top-10 player in the world. You've got Miami with LBJ and Wade (who, despite missing weeks with injury, finished 4 votes shy of the All-NBA second team and is clearly top-10 in the NBA). You've got the Thunder with Durant and Westbrook. You've got the Lakers with Kobe and Bynum. And you've got the Clippers with CP3 and Blake. 


In the second group, you have two teams built legitimately around depth and a team concept. The Spurs have a second team point guard in Tony Parker and then surround him with a 10-man rotation (Dunca, Diaw, Green, Leonard, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner, Neal, Splitter, and Blair) that combines savvy veterans and former all-stars with depth pieces and role players. The Bulls actually fall somewhere in between these two classes, surrounding Rose and Deng with a similarly deep cohort of Boozer, Noah, Korver, Rip, Taj, Asik, Brewer, and Watson. 


The Celtics are caught in between and need to go one way or the other as they move into the post-Big-3 era. I think they ought to move toward the latter group. 


Right now, the Celtics have an absolute maximum of 6 players you can trust to see the floor in a playoff game: Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Avery Bradley. This postseason I might not even count Ray among that group. Pietrus, Stiemsma, and Dooling would all qualify as borderline when healthy. I like Pietrus for perimeter defense and scoring. Stiemsma maybe sneaks into the bottom of an 11-man rotation, where he can play 10 solid minutes and score some with 4 of the better players. And Dooling is a good locker-room glue-guy but not much help on the court. Of these three, I think only a healthy Pietrus would see any minutes on the Spurs. 


The Celtics have the following players under contract in 2012-13 for the following prices:


Paul Pierce --   $16.7M
Rajon Rondo --   $11.0M
Brandon Bass --  $4.0M 
Avery Bradley -- $1.6M
JaJuan Johnson --$1.2M


Bringing us to a total of about $35M. If I'm Danny Ainge, I throw Garnett a 2-year, $20M offer (some thank-you money included for all he's done for the team). I bring Dooling back for $2M a year (generous but fair given his sideline and locker-room contributions). I bring Pietrus back for $1M a year (prove-it-or-you're-gone situation). And I pick up Stiemsma's $1M deal (similar prove-it situation). That gives me the entire starting lineup (Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-KG) for $44M and the only bench pieces that mattered for $4M. The only guy who leaves is Ray Allen (I'm assuming somebody will overpay for him), allowing the Celtics to bring back virtually the entire 2011-2012 contending squad almost completely intact. Maybe even amnesty JaJuan Johnson for good measure. 


The biggest difference, though, is that this team would cost $48M instead of $88M. That would basically allow the Celtics to start rebuilding the team with $30M-$40M of open cap space, without having to go through the anguish of a losing season and shitty team. Rebuilding without rebuilding.


So at this point I've got Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-KG starting and Pietrus-Dooling-Stiemsma on the bench. For $48M and if healthy, that's the outline of a Spurs-like juggernaut that could easily take on the best of the Eastern Conference. The key is using that next $30M to grab the Danny Greens, Gary Neals, Kawhi Leonards and Matt Bonners. 


That's not an easy task but it's eminently doable. It involves looking for those "role players who aren't very good but have a skill." Maybe Jeff Green comes back and contributes playing behind Pierce. Maybe I draft Draymond Green and he contributes behind Bass. Maybe I find a good young big man who can rebound, defend, and share minutes with Stiemsma. Maybe I pay up for Ersan Ilyasova. Maybe I find a couple of guys who can knock down 3s. 


Whatever course of action Ainge charts, I'd love to see a team with depth, variety, and versatility come next October. You don't need LeBron-Wade-Bosh or Durant-Westbrook-Harden to win a title in this league. In fact, that might not even be the best way to go about it. What you do need is a deep rotation that can withstand injury and a large group of players with diverse skill sets to draw upon.


The San Antonio Spurs have a machine out on the court for all 48 minutes, every night. It doesn't matter who's playing at any given time, it doesn't matter who's on the sidelines. It doesn't start or end with any one guy (although there's something to be said for the leadership of Parker and Duncan in fostering the team concept). It's about the collection of players and the team concept under which they play. And there's no reason the Celtics can't put together something similar this offseason. 

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Speak of the Devils

So, I was at Madison Square Garden last night for Rangers-Devils. Watched the Devils take a 3-0 lead in the first 5 minutes of play, then slowly give it back over the next 2 and a half periods. Saw the 3-3 tie broken by Carter's game-winning goal, followed by an empty-netter to boot. Thoughts from the game:


-The Devils certainly look like the better team out there. I thought the Prust and Gaborik goals were total softies that Brodeur badly misplayed, while all 4 Devils' goals on Lundqvist were legitimate plays made by the Devils. 


-The home-ice advantage in the NHL is truly mystifying. The Rangers seem like they have a pretty fierce crowd at MSG and yet they're a paltry 6-5 there over the course of these playoffs, while they're 4-4 in road games. Same goes for the Kings, who look unbeatable on the road yet have lost two closeout games at home. Go figure. 


-Dainius Zubrus looked like he was all over the ice for NJD. Same goes for Parise. Whenever those two were out there it just seemed like the Devils completely controlled the action. 


-This whole series is a very interesting role reversal from the Rangers-Devils matchups of the 90s with the Devils' trap against the Rangers' goal-scorers. Now it's just the opposite. You've got a very aggressive Devils' attack against a defensive-minded Rangers team that wants to block shots and go on the counter. 


-The Rangers looked tired, especially in the first 10 minutes of the game and in the last 10. You could smell that last goal coming for the NJD. Guys like Staal, McDonagh, and Del Zotto looked like they just wanted to get off the ice. 


-That being said, the Rangers out-hustled and generally out-toughed the Devils the entire second period and much of the third. Prust and Gaborik were both pure hustle goals while Callahan scored on a very gritty Rangers attack. 


-That being said(2), I think the Devils are just better at this point. All their goals felt like sure things, and some of their passes in the neutral zone are just really pretty. It looked like the Rangers just didn't have an answer for some Devils attacks. 


-The "Marty" cheer after NYR tied it up was absolutely deafening. Deafening. And pretty cool, too. With all the NYR towels waving toward him it almost looked like the stadium was just collapsing in on him. And the guy deserved it -- he was awful. As bad as Lundqvist looks from the box score (4 goals on 16 shots) Brodeur looked worse based on the chances he faced. 


All in all, I'd put my money on the Devils at this point. The Rangers seem like the deeper, more athletic squad and they definitely have the better goalie, but the Devils have a much more purposeful offensive attack and what looks like more reliable pieces up and down the roster. The Rangers might have some magic left but it's tough for me to see this Devils team losing twice in a row now. 

Monday, May 21, 2012

An Old-Fashioned Bass-Kickin'

Holy Bass, Batman! Brandon Bass was unbelievable tonight: 27 pts, 9-13 FG, 9-10 FT. Unbelievable. The Celtics will never lose a game in which they get those numbers from Bass. 

To be fair, a lot of credit goes to Rondo and Pierce for assisting him on those buckets. But Bass hit jumper after jumper and he slammed home every basket in the paint, taking no chances with the Sixers' defenders. He also defended well and pulled down 6 rebounds. 

Bass played 37 minutes tonight after averaging less than 25 in these playoffs. This helped the Celtics in so many ways, even beyond the added offense. For one thing, it limited Ryan Hollins' minutes; he played only 8 after 10, 14, 16, and 15 in Games 1-4. Hollins has been lukewarm to terrible throughout this series and there is no reason he should be playing 15 with Bass playing less than 25. 

In any case, big win for the C's. Credit also to Stiemsma (10 points in 14 minutes), Rondo (13 pts / 14 asts), Truth (39 solid minutes on both sides of the ball) and KG (20 pts and a +17). 

The problem now becomes the 2-guard spot with Bradley recuperating. Bradley is arguably the second most important Celtic after Garnett (his adjusted plus-minus, for the entire season but especially these playoffs, is second only to Garnett and no one else is close) and they badly miss his defense on the perimeter. Ray Allen has looked simply awful -- clearly hindered by injury -- and looked by far the weakest member of the starting lineup tonight. That shoulder injury to Bradley could spell trouble for the C's, if not in this series than the next one. 

A close-out on Wednesday would be huge, but I have learned not to expect much when the Celtics have a series lead. Hopefully they can get it done this time in Philly. 

Monday, May 14, 2012

What Went Wrong in Game 2

Here are the +/- for the Celtics' bigs over the past two games:


Garnett  +20
Hollins  -10
Bass     -13
Stiemsma -19


versus these for the Sixers:


Brand   -4
Hawes   -7
Young   -10
Allen   +27


What these numbers say is that Garnett dominates Brand and Hawes when he is on the floor. But as soon as he comes up and Lavoy Allen gets up from the Sixers' bench, the tables are turned and Allen just shreds Hollins and Stiemsma down low. 


This is the bane of the 2012 Celtics: no quality bigs to play behind Garnett. Even calling Bass a big man is really generous; he's really a small power forward. With KG on the bench, it comes down to Hollins and Stiemsma, and they just aren't getting it done. 


The point differential is one thing, but here's another: Stiemsma and Hollins collected 1 rebound between the two of them over a combined 25 minutes of playing time. That's 1 rebound for two guys, both 7-footers, whose only responsibilities are to play defense and rebound the basketball in KG's absence. That's despicable and it's no wonder Philly is dominating the bench play. 


Other Problems:


1. That was by far the worst playoff game I've ever seen Paul Pierce play. 2-9 for 7 points with 5 turnovers was the stat line but it looked even worse than that. All 5 turnovers were hideous, a few of those shots were way off, and he just looked completely stymied for the entire game. To be fair, the defense on Iguodala was solid and included a nice block. But The Truth was nowhere to be found tonight.  


2. Brandon Bass. After being the star of the first three minutes of the game with 6 points on 3 FG, Bass proceeded to miss 9 of his next 10 shots, including several drives to the basket concluding in him losing the ball and berating the referee after the no-call. The Celtics need Bass in this series and we need him big time.


3. We are terrible with Bradley off the floor. He posted a +18 over the course of this game but that doesn't even capture the impact of his defense. Without him on the floor, Rondo, Ray, and Dooling have to work much harder and one of Turner, Holiday, and Lou ends up getting hot. Huge momentum swing with him out of the game and I really hope he is healthy. 



Sunday, May 13, 2012

Round Two: Celtics-Sixers

My thoughts with Game One in the bank:

Offensively, the Celtics got very little from anyone other than KG (29 and 11) and Rondo (triple-double). Pierce had 14 but it was a quiet 14, with several borderline foul calls on sloppy-looking drives. That needs to change going forward in the series. There's no way KG will average 30 points when all is said and done, and my guess is that Pierce will continue to be limited by the combination sprained-MCL and fierce-Iggy-defense. So the Celtics need scoring from Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Mickael Pietrus if they're going to keep winning. 

I don't think increased production from the secondary scorers is too much to ask for. The Hawks were able to limit those guys by switching defenders in pick-and-roll situations, but it doesn't look like Philly plans to rely on too many switches. Off the pick-and-roll, Rondo should be able to find Allen, Pietrus, and especially Bass for open jumpers. 

Defensively, the Celtics got killed down-low. The Sixers pounded it down low to Hawes, Allen, Brand, and Young and produced easy buckets seemingly at will. It remains a mystery why they didn't keep going to Hawes late in fourth. The Sixers' dominance in the paint means that we're going to need a big series out of ... gulp ... Ryan Hollins? Stiemsma seems to have completely lost any and all spark from the regular season, leading Doc to play Hollins for big minutes throughout the Hawks series and into Game One. We need a big defensive effort from him to keep the Sixers' bigs in check. 

Overall, I worry about the Sixers' frontcourt as the series progresses. Bass evidently doesn't play a lick of defense (one of many reasons to be increasingly frustrated with his presence on the floor in key moments), leaving the Celtics with Garnett, Hollins, and Stiemsma as their only bigs. Given Garnett's age, Stiemsma's struggles and Hollins' inexperience, the matchup down-low seems to bode poorly for the C's. 

That said, the Celtics own a huge advantage in Avery Bradley. Whenever Bradley is on the floor, Doc can essentially choose one Sixers' player that he wants to shut down for the entirety of Bradley's playing time (it was Jrue Holiday in the first half and Evan Turner in the second). This will be a major boon to the Celtics in coming games and hopefully lead to reverberating frustrations for the Sixers. 

In general, the Celtics are ridiculously banged-up, while the Sixers are a good-not-great team with tremendous athleticism. The scales look pretty even to me. I think Philly might pick off one of their home games and possibly both, forcing the Celtics to forego potential rest again and fight this series well into a second week. It's essential to win out as early as possible and start resting up for the Heat, but I don't think the Celtics will be so lucky. With a tough, young, run-and-gun opponent I expect at least two losses before the flight to South Beach. 

Celtics in 6. 



Elsewhere in the NBA:

Heat-Pacers. Heat lead 1-0. 
I'd love to see the Pacers win this series, or at least push it to 6-7 games, but I'm skeptical. They just don't have enough firepower to match Wade and LeBron (who won today even without Bosh for the second half). Frank Vogel was foolish to run his mouth earlier this week, and compounded that mistake by inexplicably abandoning the obvious (and successful) strategy of feeding Hibbert and West in the low post, leading to the Heat's effortless second-half comeback. I say the Pacers notch one heroic victory before the Heat cap off another gentleman's sweep. 

Spurs-Clippers. 
Gosh. Not surprised at all by the Spurs sweep (had them in 5) but I am surprised to see the Clippers here. I guess I overestimated the Grizzlies, though, because I stand by what I wrote about them. There's really not much to this team other than Chris Paul. The Spurs are much deeper, much smarter, and dramatically more talented on the wing. Add to that that this might be the league's best coach squaring off against its worst, and it's an overwhelming advantage: San Antonio. That said, I find it hard to believe that Chris Paul doesn't snag one game out of the first four, so I'll predict once again Spurs in 5. 

Thunder-Lakers.
Boy, did the Lakers look bad against Denver. Pau with 3 points in Game 6? Bynum almost invisible on multiple nights? Kobe basically called all of them out, saying that Artest is the only teammate he can rely on to play hard and have his back. And while I do agree that Pau and Bynum are despicable and lethargic (Bynum especially), there are also basketball reasons to be cited here. The Lakers get nothing from the wings, so assuming Kobe is well covered the defense can immediately double once the ball moves down to the post. The Thunder have a huge advantage over the Nuggets in this respect because they feature two of the best post defenders in the league with Perkins and Ibaka. Perkins can cover Bynum straight-up and Ibaka should eat Gasol alive, leaving them several options to take on Kobe on the perimeter. That said, and despite the fact that I think the Lakers deserve to bow out of these playoffs as soon as possible, I don't believe in the Thunder's perimeter defense at all. I think it's as weak as Perkins and Ibaka are strong, as illustrated by Kobe terrorizing them in an impressive late-season Lakers victory. The Thunder will win but it won't be as easy as some are predicting. OKC in 7. 

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

The Red Sox Suck.

Wow. The Red Sox are a disgrace. 

We currently own the fourth-worst record in the Major Leagues, narrowly beating out the Twins, Royals, and Padres. Recent misadventures include a weekend sweep by the Baltimore Orioles (in Fenway no less), dropping 2 out of 3 to the mediocre-at-best Oakland A's, and, concluded just hours ago, dropping 2 out of 3 to the aforementioned hapless Royals. 

This is by far the worst Red Sox team since I've been a fan. They will be nowhere near the playoffs and with good reason. Here are the principal objects of my current ire:

1. Josh Beckett. I'm so tired of this guy and his bullshit. He was completely unapologetic after the Fried Chicken fiasco last year, despite putting on more weight and pitching worse than any other pitcher on staff. Today, it comes out that Beckett played a full round of golf last week despite nursing a tight lateral muscle, and then two days later he misses a start due to the same tightness. "I would say that was less than the best thing to do on that day off," said Bobby V. Ya think so, Bobby?

As a World Series winner, a veteran, and the No. 1 starter last season, you expect a degree of leadership and the Sox couldn't have gotten any less from Beckett over the last 10 months. So disappointing, and I would not be sad to see the two parties part ways in the near future. 

2. Clay Buchholz. I'm done waiting for this guy to come around and be the pitcher everybody thinks he can be. It's been six years now, and only one out of six with an ERA under 3. Currently boasting a 9.09 ERA on the season, and Peter Gammons reports that he's now the second pitcher ever -- in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL -- to give up 5 ER in each of his first six starts to a season. 

Apparently the Sox are trying to send him down to the minors and they feel "pretty confident" he would clear waivers. They can't move him now, though, because every potential replacement is injured.

3. Jon Lester. Normally I'm a fan, but 4.29 ERA is just not cutting it as an ace. That's a fourth or fifth starter's ERA right there. 

4. The entire bullpen. Seriously, where did we get some of these guys? Aceves looked solid last year but has blown a couple of saves already and his ERA is above 6. (Somebody recently called him a double-agent for the Yankees, which I think might be worth investigating). Vicente Padilla has given up 9 ER in 13 innings. Mark Melancon's ERA is pushing fifty. 

5. Carl Crawford. No explanation necessary. 

Top to bottom, this is easily the worst Red Sox pitching staff of the past 15 years and probably one of the worst in the league right now. Thank God for Ryan Sweeney and Will Middlebrooks or we might have the worst record in baseball. I wouldn't be surprised if we soon do. 








Monday, May 7, 2012

Finish Them!

Time to get rid of this personality-less, identity-less Hawks team. We've broken their spirit. Last night, they brought back Smith, they brought back Horford for his first minutes since January, and we blow them out of the building. We lead by 23 at half, and 37 in the third quarter. And we take a 3-1 series lead that's good for a series win 95% of the time in the 16-team playoff format.


Round 1 of the playoffs has been pretty lame. Right now we've got 5 teams up 3-1 (Sixers, Heat, Pacers, Celtics, Lakers), 1 team up 3-0 (Spurs), and 1 team already on to Round 2 with a sweep (Thunder). Only one series looks like it might get interesting, with the Clippers up 2-1 on the Grizz. 


Round 2 should be much more fun, especially Celtics-Sixers (knock) in the East and Lakers-Thunder out West. Stay tuned. 

Joseph Addai and the running game

I’ll always remember Joseph Addai for two things. The first is the way he and Lawrence Maroney are linked in my mind as two first-round running backs that went to the Colts and Patriots, respectively, at a time when those two teams seemed to meet in the playoffs every year. Given that Maroney is one of the more unfortunate first-round picks in Belichick’s tenure, that 2006 draft sticks with me.

The second thing Addai calls to mind is the 2006 AFC Championship game against those Colts, a game the Patriots had well in-hand before a devastating collapse in the second half. Addai gashed our defense repeatedly and was a big part of an Indianapolis offense for which the Pats had no answer; the image of Addai running it in for the winning touchdown with a minute remaining is still burned in the back of my mind. The Colts went on to defeat the Chicago Bears easily in the Super Bowl two weeks later, and I actually think of 2006 as the year we should have won our fourth Lombardi Trophy, more so than even 2007 or 2011. It’s a sad truth of fandom that the pain of Games That Could Have Been is often greater than the satisfaction of Games That Were.

Now comes the news that the Patriots are bringing Addai on board. I find that I hold no grudge against the 30 year-old, maybe because it seems like so long since there was any real heated emotion in the Patriots-Colts “rivalry.” It wouldn't hurt to make some memories of Addai that don't involve heartbreak and disappointment. It also makes sense to build depth at running back at a time when multiple-back systems are all the rage and injuries seem to plague the position. Addai has an injury history himself, having missed significant time each of the past four years and seen his production drop every season since his rookie year. Addai joins Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Stevan Ridley on the roster.

Ideally, Addai would provide some leadership and mentoring for 2011 draftees Vereen (second round) and Ridley (third round), as the latter two take the reins at RB and get the majority of the carries. Like Ridley, Addai is an LSU product, which could help legitimize his position as a role model for the younger players. I suspect that any situation in which Addai becomes the lead back means that something has gone wrong with Belichick’s master plan. Woodhead is a solid change-of-pace option, with toughness, elusiveness, and good skills as a receiver, but he isn’t the kind of talent that changes games. Vereen was injured for most of last season, and while Ridley got a fair number of carries, he had some ball-security issues that cost him playing time. With a full year of conditioning and apprenticeship under their belts, hopefully the two young ‘uns are now ready for a larger role.

Before being drafted, Vereen had a fantastic 2010-11 season at Cal, putting up 1,167 yards and 13 TDs. A track athlete in college, he’s a burner who also has the strength to take on contact, and he looked outstanding in the preseason last year until hurting his hamstring. Ridley (or, as my friends like to call him, The Second Coming) is larger and a bit more of a bruiser, providing a nice complement in the backfield. He had a nearly identical final year at Louisiana State (1,147/15 in 2010). 

Perhaps more than anything, it will be interesting to see how the two perform as pass-catchers and protectors. If they can become complete backs, they won’t come off the field much and will go a long way towards solidifying a position that hasn’t had a consistent, dynamic element in years. New England’s strong passing attack would benefit from having a legitimate rushing threat to draw attention (and safeties); the running game already has the advantage of seeing fewer men in the box, since defenses tend to post extra defensive backs against Tom Brady. At the very least, an improved rushing attack keeps opponents guessing, produces better down-and-distance situations, increases time of possession (which helps our defense quite a bit--the Pats' struggles stopping opponents on third down have resulted in lots of long series for Wilfork and co.), and could save some wear-and-tear on Brady.  

Belichick sometimes seems to go against the currents of change in the NFL -- for instance, as more and more teams have switched to 3-4 defenses, which Belichick helped popularize, the Patriots last year reverted to playing more of a 4-3 (at least nominally). It would be fun to see the Pats emphasize the running game at a time when the NFL is a pass-driven league, maybe to take advantage of defensive schemes that are increasingly geared towards stopping the quarterback.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

The State of Things in Madison Square Garden

Let's take a look over at our friends in New York. 


The Good News: 


The Knicks are about to get swept out of the playoffs in the first round and set an NBA record for most consecutive playoff losses by a franchise. This isn't really that good news, first of all because it's hard to hate on the Knicks, even for a New York team, them being so pathetic and trying so hard; and second of all, because the most loathsome team in the NBA is the one sweeping them. 


Looking back on the Knicks' season, though, it's really a cautionary tale about the need for a point guard. The Knicks have the best defensive center in the league in Chandler, a top-10 scorer in Melo, a dynamic scorer at the 2 in JR Smith, and a few strong defensive assets in Shumpert, Jeffries, etc. These guys have flashed brilliance and the Knicks have looked dangerous. But the Knicks can do nothing -- nothing! -- with Baron Davis and Mike Bibby playing the point. You need that floor general. When Chandler makes a great defensive play, he needs someone to give the ball too right away. Melo, JR, Novak need someone to set them up. Someone needs to quarterback the offense. You just can't do without that guy. Makes you feel all the more grateful for Rondo. 


The Bad News:


The Rangers are going to win the Stanley Cup. 


It's just going to happen. You can tell watching the playoffs when that one team has that "championship feel" about them -- they play so well together, they're on a mission, they gut out the tough games and they will themselves to win when they need to. The Rangers have that "championship feel" this year. They have all regular season, and they do now. They won't be beaten. 


Take a look at the road ahead for them. They Capitals are flat-out not a good enough hockey team to beat them. Then they play one of two inferior division rivals, both of whom they've beaten multiple times during the regular season (Flyers and Devils). And then they find themselves in the Finals, up against a team with a small fan-base like Nashville, St. Louis, Phoenix, or LA (it's hockey). And in that situation you can bet that the 2012 Rangers -- with their dedicated fan base and their "championship feel" -- won't be denied. 

A Guest-Written Evaluation of the 2012 Draft

The way you feel about the Patriots’ 2012 draft probably depends on how much you trust Belichick to evaluate fringe players and their fit in his system. To be clear, I would argue that the draft is at least a very good one. With New England sandwiching a few iffy moves in the middle around several fantastic picks at either end of the draft, the team made out well. But were those Day Two picks enough to put this class over the top?

It’s fair to wonder why the coaching staff’s evaluations sometimes differ so drastically from those of other teams and draft analysts. For instance, was the pick of Tavon Wilson in the middle of the second round (no. 48 overall) a big mistake, a slight reach, or just another case of a mock-draft public thinking it knows better than the Pats’ head coach? But before I get to the Wilson pick, which I would consider the turning point of this draft, let’s start with a couple big first-round selections.

As has become usual over the past few years, the Pats came into this draft loaded with early round picks. With two first-rounders and two second-rounders, I was expecting Belichick to acquire some impact talent, but I was also fairly sure that he would trade away some of those picks to keep his currency high for future years. I dreaded that we would come away from the draft, once again, with no upgrade to the pass rush despite a glaring need. Would 2012 be another year I would have to watch opposing offenses put up monster passing numbers, as the Brady-Belichick window grew that much smaller? Like I said in an email to a couple of friends the morning of draft day, “If the Patriots don't draft pass rush help with one of their first round picks this year, I will [poop building blocks].”

As we got into the middle of Round One, the player I had fallen in love with was still on the board. Chandler Jones is a raw edge rusher with incredible measurables, great athleticism, and high upside. I expected him to go in the middle of the first round, and as pick 19 approached, I figured the price for trading up from where the Pats sat at 27 was becoming reasonable enough for “Draft Miser” Belichick to consider it. Of course, no one really expected it to happen, but a guy can dream. Imagine my excitement, then, when Adam Schefter announced that the Patriots had traded up to 21 and were planning on taking Jones. I could hardly believe it. I was doubly shocked when, just a few minutes later, the Pats jumped up the board again to take LB Dont’a Hightower from Alabama. Making one first round trade-up was out of character, but two was unheard of. Two front seven defenders in Round One? Yes, please.

A few points on the picks. Let’s start with the premise that the Patriots don’t have a lot of holes--I’ll refer you to Belichickian’s roster analysis from a few weeks ago. The offense is solid from top to bottom. The run defense is respectable, with big bodies up front and strong, tackling linebackers in the middle. I’m not breaking new ground when I say the problem is the pass defense. It’s worth it to spend--even to overspend--if it means genuinely addressing your one, glaring weakness. Moreover, after being aggressive in free agency, the Patriots had already filled 74 of a potential 90 roster spots before the draft, far more than most organizations. Rather than drafting twelve middling guys and hoping to hit on a few, it made sense to target just small number of high-impact players.

The other big-picture theme has to do with defensive philosophy. Maybe this year was simply a case of the right people being available at the right point in the first round, but I’d also like to think that Belichick has come to agree with Jerry Reese (and me) when it comes to building a pass defense: it’s all about pressure. As the Giants have repeatedly demonstrated, a strong pass rush can make an average secondary look good, but even a great secondary will eventually get exposed if the quarterback has all day to throw. Do I have some bitterness and a slight inferiority complex these days when it comes to the Giants? Maybe. But instead of pouring pick after pick into defensive back busts, as the Patriots have done recently, Belichick is finally giving his secondary some help up front. I can’t pretend to understand what it takes to play the outside/rush linebacker spot in the Pats’ 3-4, but it has been beyond frustrating to watch us pass up guys like Clay Matthews and Brooks Reed every year.

Apparently, Jones and Hightower are the right “fit.” And yes, I expect Hightower to rush the passer as a Patriot despite playing mostly ILB at ‘Bama. I see him rotating part-time with Mayo and Spikes on early downs and playing outside the rest of the time. Considering that both the Ravens and Steelers were said to love Hightower, this is someone I want on my team. The AFC North powerhouses know how to pick their ‘backers. I get itchy fingers when I hear that someone might be groomed to be the “heir to Ray Lewis,” and the LaMarr Woodley comparisons don’t hurt either. It’s wishful thinking to assume Hightower will be quite that good, but even so, adding quality and depth to your linebacking corps is always a good idea.

But I think Jones is the real gem of this class. He reminds me a little of Jason Pierre-Paul coming out of college, with his combination of intriguing raw tools and huge upside. Going into the draft, JPP was considered a physical freak with classic boom/bust potential. If he ever put it together, he could be special, but the lack of refinement scared some (i.e. most) people away. The Giants took a chance. It worked. Obviously, that’s a best-case scenario for Jones. He might not be quite as physically gifted as JPP, and so might lack that top-of-the-league ceiling, but he also has a higher floor at this point in his career. A couple years from now, once Jones matures fully into his frame and has a few semesters of Belichick Academy under his belt, he could be one of the premier edge rushers in the league. Fingers crossed.

And then things got sketchy. With the sixteenth pick in the second round, the New England Patriots select... Tavon Wilson? Troy Brown’s announcement should have been spoken with rising intonation, because it sure raised some questions. Despite our abysmal history drafting defensive backs in the early rounds, we all knew secondary help was coming at some point, but Tavon Wilson? As reporters and commentators scrambled to find their non-existent notes on the Illinois safely, the consensus gradually emerged that Wilson had flown under the draft radar because... most people don’t think he’s that good. A few came to his defense: ESPN Boston’s chief Patriots propagandist Mike Reiss noted that Wilson had made seven pre-draft visits with teams. Former Illini coach Ron Zook said he knew Wilson had The Right Stuff all along. Go figure.

Now, to be fair, I’m not going to pan this pick just because McShay and Kiper say Tavon Wilson should have gone later. I’ll take Belichick’s judgement over the mob’s any day. The number of fantastic players that go unrecognized by the Combine could fill several All-Pro teams.

But: Given Belichick’s recent poor record of drafting and developing DBs, it’s fair to at least question his decisions in that area. Should Wilson emerge into a star, or even a solid regular, I’ll happily admit the Hoodie knew best. Fixing the safety position would turn this draft from "good" to "great."

Even if that’s the case, though, you wonder whether the mid-round picks could have been spent more judiciously. Since most teams had Wilson as a late-round selection, could the Patriots have taken someone else at no. 48 and then grabbed him with a later pick, maximizing value? According to most analysts, the answer is yes. 
There were still a lot of good players sitting there in the middle of Round Two. On the other hand, no one has the pulse of the draft like Belichick does. I’m sure the thought of waiting on Wilson occurred to him, and perhaps he felt that another team would swoop in if the Patriots tried to get cute. If that’s the case, and if the coaching staff truly felt that Wilson was their guy, then I applaud them. Safety was definitely a need, and Wilson was probably near the very top of the Patriots’ board. We mere bloggers have limited access to information, so for now we have to trust Belichick on this one.

And so the draft continued, and the Pats traded down. Several times. I’m not going to pretend I know enough about the later picks to comment on most of them. DE Jake Bequette is an interesting guy, with good size and a history of getting after the quarterback in the SEC. The rankings say Bequette was a bit of a reach, but we’re in fairly subjective territory at this point. Slot receiver Jeremy Ebert and DB Nate Ebner look like a couple more darts Belichick is hoping will stick.

Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, on the other hand, is someone to watch. Less than a year ago, he was being talked about as a first- or second-round guy. A few experts even compared him favorably to Husker teammate Prince Amukamara, the Giants’ 2011 first round selection (which, in retrospect, is probably absurd). As the college season went on, it became clear that Dennard belonged more in the second or third round, but an April 21 arrest murdered his draft status and sent him tumbling to round seven, where the Patriots gladly pounced. If all goes well, Dennard could turn into an excellent slot defender, or maybe the extra DB in nickel and dime packages. He’s no Darrelle Revis, but that’s good return on pick number 224. This is a low-risk move by the Patriots. They wrapped up their draft like they began it--on a high note.

Jones and Hightower are potential blue-chippers, and Dennard could be a steal. If Wilson and Bequette turn out to be quality players, this draft will have been pure gold. But if not, the Pats will have squandered a couple of high picks and the pundit establishment will be able to say, “I told you so.” For me, Wilson’s success or failure will provide an interesting referendum on Belichick’s ability to scout and develop his defensive secondary.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Celtics-Hawks Round One

"Maybe the Hawks are just the Hawks."  -Mac Jones


It's funny that the Hawks and the Falcons are both from Atlanta, because I couldn't come up with an NBA and NFL team that share more in common. Both teams are perennially in the playoffs. Both are perennial non-contenders for a championship. Both are perennial second-fiddle-players to the better team in their respective divisions (Heat, Saints). Both are built around a good-not-great, almost-franchise-player (Matt Ryan, Joe Johnson) surrounded by good-not-great role players. 


And both are named after predatory birds. 


I love this matchup for the Celtics. No threatening big man to challenge KG in the paint. (Zaza Pachulia? Somebody Named Collins?) No shutdown defender to limit Pierce. A B-list point guard in Teague. And one true star in Johnson to be shut down by Avery Bradley. 


Game 1: Tough loss, but mostly boiled down to an atrocious first quarter when the Hawks came out blazing hot. I think the Hawks looked at the regular season and saw tough losses to the C's, including one at home, and an almost-loss against the C's without Rondo, KG, Ray, Stiemsma, Pietrus and Pierce. They said in the locker room, "We need to give this series our absolute best to win it." And they just dominated that first quarter. 


Game 2: With Rondo out, Pierce just took over. The Celtics proved that they're the better team, and maybe, hopefully, broke the spirit of the Hawks to some degree by winning without their best player.


I like this matchup most of all because I think the Hawks and the Celtics both know the Celtics to be the better team in the series. The final matchup of the regular season was telling, when Bradley, Bass, and the Celtics backups almost beat the Hawks' front lines. Game 2 was a retelling of that same story: "We're better than you guys. We can play you tight even without our best player." 


I think the Celtics win big in Game 3 with Rondo back in the lineup, then win a tight one in Game 4. Game 5 in ATL could go either way but the Celtics take this series easily. C's in 6 is the conservative pick, but I like what I see and I'll go...


...C's in 5. 




Meanwhile, elsewhere around the league:


Bulls-Sixers. Tied 1-1. 
Prediction: Bulls demoralized without Rose. Philly strong at home and has already won in Chicago. Series goes 7 games and Bulls muscle it out because they try harder than any other team in the league and Thibodeau will adjust their approach. 


Heat-Knicks. Heat up 2-0. 
Prediction: Sweep. 


Pacers-Magic. Tied 1-1. 
Prediction: Hibbert doing work on Big Baby, Ryan Anderson, or whoever else they trot out to fill the Howard void. Orlando gets another game or two with the 3-point attack but it's not enough. Pacers move on in 6. 


Spurs-Jazz. Spurs up 2-0. 
Prediction: Sweep. Pop knows his boys need those extra days off and the Jazz are just outmatched. 


Thunder-Mavericks. Thunder up 2-0. 
Prediction: Both games have been extremely close, and the series is going back to Dallas, and we all know about Dirk and Jet in the playoffs. But Delonte West as your third best scorer? Brendan Hayward as your center? Jason Kidd as the starting PG? I don't think so. Dallas knows they're not going all the way this year and that 2-0 hole must feel demoralizing. Thunder in 5. 


Lakers-Nuggets. Lakers up 2-0. 
Prediction: Lakers sneak out a game in Denver and close it out at home in Game 5. Nuggets really no match for Kobe and Bynum. 


Grizzlies-Clippers: Clippers up 1-0. 
Prediction: Chris Paul godliness notwithstanding, I think this Clippers team is just so weak. CP3 wins 1-2 more games but the Grizzlies are definitely the better team and that truth will out. Grizzlies in 6.