This is what happens...

...when you come out of the gate slow in a playoff series. 

Hockey involves a lot of luck. I say that not to denigrate hockey -- my favorite sport to watch on television -- but only to point out that in a game where scrums are so frequent, action is so frenzied, and yet so few goals are scored, the random bounce of the puck has a lot to do with whether you win or go home. That's why hockey playoffs are played out in 7-game series. One game can't tell you who the better team is. In a 7-game series, you have to really and truly -- comprehensively, one might say -- beat the other team to send them home. 

In the closest playoff series of all time -- 3 overtime games, and all 7 decided by a single goal -- it's safe to say that the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins were about as close to evenly matched as it gets. Some will say that Washington wanted it more, out-hustling the B's when it counted. Some will say that the Bruins let it get away from them when they really should have won. Really the only thing to say is that in 4 out of 7 games, the Washington Capitals put more pucks in the net than the Boston Bruins. And the Bruins are home early because of it. 

In hockey, the "random bounce of the puck" can be tempered by three factors primarily: your ability to get shots on goal, your ability to deny the opponent shots on goal, and your goaltender's relative ability of your goaltender to make the marginal saves on random bounces that would otherwise have found the net. 

Here are the shots on goal for the series:

1: BOS 30, WAS 17

2: BOS 44, WAS 39

3: WAS 32, BOS 29

4: BOS 45, WAS 21

5: BOS 37, WAS 32

6: WAS 39, BOS 31

7: BOS 32, WAS 27

Focusing solely on SOG, then, two games were won decisively by the Bruins and 5 others were more-or-less a wash (the two teams within 8 SOG of each other). This leads me to make two main conclusions about the series. 

(1) It really was pretty close. With the exceptions of Game 4, which the Bruins dominated but lost, and Game 1, which they dominated and won, no team dramatically outplayed the other at any point. 

(2) Because of that fact -- the closeness of the games -- it really did come to a lot of of luck. True, Braden Holtby did outplay Tim Thomas, and Timmay did give up a couple soft goals, but really there wasn't a tremendous difference between the goaltenders. At the end of the day, the puck bounced Washington's way a few more times than it bounced Boston's way. Last year, it bounced our way more than a few times this time of year. 

If the Bruins wanted to win this series, they needed to come out of the gate and dominate from Game 1. They needed to overwhelm the Capitals with physicality, control the puck more, and produce the chances that would have led to goals. The B's failed to do that. 

In net, Tim Thomas played poorly by Tim Thomas standards, but he's not to blame for the series, not nearly. He even submitted a typical Tim Thomas Game 7 gem -- he deserves blame for neither of the 2 goals -- but by that point it was too late. The puck bounced Washington's way on both of those goals, and the Capitals move on. 

Disappointing though it was, the Bruins have nothing to be ashamed of. They played through a number of key injuries (Horton, McQuaid, Bergeron) and had a good chance to win it in the end. This team is as fun to watch as any in the NHL, and as fun to root for as any team in New England. They didn't lift the Cup this year, but I can't wait to watch them try again in 2013. 

Celtics Rest the Big Guns

So I'm watching Celtics-Heat right now. It's the penultimate game of the season and Doc has elected to trot out the following lineup: Keyon Dooling, Avery Bradley, Sasha Pavlovic, Brandon Bass, and Chris Hollins, with occasional doses of Paul Pierce as needed. No sign of Rondo (back), Garnett, Ray-Ray (ankle), Pietrus, or Stiemsma (foot). It's the end of the third quarter and the B Team has played it to a 50-50 tie. 


This is a great call by Doc. We've got the Hawks in Round 1, whom we know we can beat having beaten them twice this season and almost a third team with the JV lineup on Friday. The Hawks are a mediocre playoff team if there ever was one, while the Celtics are dangerous, experienced, and finding their stride at the right time of year. Doc knows this and he also knows that the great weakness for the C's in these playoffs will be their age. Nothing could benefit the Celtics more than turning the last two weeks of the season into two weeks of rest for the veteran core. 


Meanwhile, the Hawks have taken care of the Clippers (there's a team headed home after Round One, for sure), so the Celtics will need to win this game, beat the Bucks, and watch the Mavericks beat the Hawks in order to get home-court. But Doc has made it clear that his team can handle the Hawks at home or on the road. It feels good going into the playoffs with that kind of confidence, along with well-rested starters and well-practiced reserves. 


UPDATE: Sasha Pavlovic is torching the Heat. JuJuan Johnson just dunked on somebody. The Celtics are gonna take this one by about 15 points. So, who knows? Home court still in play. Go Celtics. 

Bruins-Capitals Game 7

Gosh, the Bruins drew a tough matchup with these Capitals. The kid Holtby is playing like a brick wall in goal. Semin seems to score every game. Backstrom and Ovechkin are deadly and require one defenseman's attention at all times. 


And it doesn't help that Tim Thomas is playing like a sack of crap. It's like the cab driver says in that commercial: "You're naught Tim Taugh-mas." He has given up ugly goals every game, today's being the late-game five-hole game from Ovechkin. 


Nevertheless, you gotta feel good about this Game 7 from a Bruins perspective. We're coming home to Boston, we've got the Game 7 experience, and the team's been playing better and better -- Krejci and Seguin finally making it onto the scoresheet. If Thomas can pull it together and post a solid Tim Thomas game, we should be able to get it done. 

Patriots Roster Breakdown & Draft Needs

Here is Patriots' current depth chart as I see it.


OFFENSE


QB:
Tom Brady
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Mallett


RB:
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
Danny Woodhead


FB:
Spencer Larsen
Tony Fiammetta
Eric Kettani


WR:
Brandon Lloyd
Wes Welker
Donte Stallworth
Deion Branch
Anthony Gonzalez
Chad Ochocinco
Julian Edelman
Matthew Slater
Tiquan Underwood
Britt Davis


TE:
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernandez
Daniel Fells


OT:
Matt Light
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Marcus Cannon
Matt Kopa
Kyle Hix


OG:
Logan Mankins
Brian Waters
Robert Gallery
Donald Thomas


C:
Dan Connolly
Dan Koppen
Nick McDonald
Ryan Wendell


DEFENSE


DT:
Vince Wilfork
Kyle Love
Marcus Harrison
Myron Pryor
Ron Brace


DE:
Jonathan Fanene
Brandon Deaderick
Alex Silvestro


OLB:
Rob Ninkovich
Trevor Scott
Jermaine Cunningham
Markell Carter
Aaron Lavarias
Jeff Tarpinian
Tracy White


ILB:
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Bobby Carpenter
Niko Koutouvides
Dane Fletcher
Mike Rivera


CB:
Ras-I Dowling
Devin McCourty
Kyle Arrington
Will Allen
Sterling Moore
Marquice Cole


SS:
Patrick Chung


FS: 
Steve Gregory
Sergio Brown
Josh Barrett
Malcolm Williams
Ross Ventrone


Here's what I think we should do for the draft. First of all, I'd be very disappointed if Belichick used any picks on offensive players in the first two rounds. We have the best quarterback of all time and the quarterback of the future in Mallett; we have running back depth for the next 5+ years with Ridley, Vereen, and Woodhead, in addition to the new fullback options; we have two of the top five TEs in the league in addition to a top-20 as backup; we have three WRs more than we can carry on the roster; and we have enough depth at offensive line to field two starting units (Light-Mankins-Koppen-Waters-Vollmer and Solder-Thomas-Connolly-Gallery-Cannon). I wouldn't mind a late-round pick on a young WR to build depth for 3-4 years down the line, but other than that we really shouldn't be drafting offense in rounds 1 and 2. 


Defensively, here's what we need:
(1) Safety. Chung is solid at SS and hopefully Gregory will be solid at FS, but after that we have a whole lotta nothing, leaving us vulnerable to the same sort of catastrophe that we experienced last year when Chung missed games. Brown-Barrett and below simply cannot see significant playing time this year. Furthermore, Gregory has a lot of upside as a potential slot corner in nickel packages, giving us further reason to look for another safety. I would grab Mark Barron immediately if he falls to No. 27. Even though a FS would be ideal, Barron plays well in coverage. He would be a great #2 on the depth chart behind Chung, providing competition and insurance in case of another Chung injury. Or, he could transition to FS and potentially start over Gregory. Either way it would be a huge boon for the Pats if he were to drop to 27. That said, such a drop is unlikely, and so the Patriots need to take a good look at a guy like Harrison Smith as well. 
(2) Defensive Line. Wilfork needs to play fewer snaps this year for his own sake. Love has looked solid behind him, and maybe Myron Pryor can step up. I think the best thing would be to add a big boy who can play 3-4 DE, stop the run and get after the passer occasionally. Fletcher Cox or Michael Brockers would be ideal, but more realistically Devon Still or Kendall Reyes would work too. Any of these guys could play end with Wilfork/Love in the middle or tackle with Wilfork on the sideline. 
(3) Pass Rush. The Pats need to get a rush going from the OLB position. Courtney Upshaw would be a dream prospect to play across from Rob Ninkovich, making for a third-down line of Ninkovich-Mayo-Spikes-Upshaw. Wow. Other options to fill this role would be Melvin Ingram, Andre Branch, or Nick Perry. 
(4) Cornerback. Less of a need than safety. Dowling has the potential to play a shutdown corner and I think McCourty should stay at corner after the promise of his rookie year. But further insurance and competition is always a good thing. Janoris Jenkins in particular could be a steal if he drops far enough. Trumaine Johnson out of Montana would be another good late-round pick. 


All in all, the Patriots need to come out of this draft with some significant help in the front seven as well as some significant help in the secondary. They need help in both areas to contend for the Super Bowl again in 2013. 

Two More Wins

So the B's take Game 3 and it looks like the Caps might be Backstrom-less for Game 4. Solid. Bruins need to take advantage on Thursday night and then close the book back home in Boston. That would give us the winner of Devils-Panthers, either one of which I think will be a weaker team than the Capitals. 

Meanwhile, it's looking more and more like Rangers-Flyers on the other side of the bracket. Regardless of how well Philly's been playing, I think that'll be a cupcake matchup for the Rangers, who swept the Flyers in the regular season. The Flyers are a very similar team to the Rangers in style; they're just a little bit worse. And that always makes for the most lopsided matchups. 

I liked what I saw out of the Bruins tonight. I'm not worried about the three goals because I think at least two of them were attributable to unusual, unlikely-to-recur mental lapses on the part of Zdeno Chara.

(1) It was Chara's roughing penalty in the first that led to the first Capitals goal. He is a crucial part of the Bruins' penalty kill and the B's are at a huge disadvantage when he steps into the box. He's gotta avoid doing that.

(2) It was Chara whose lapse led to the wide-open breakaway Laich goal in the third. Chalk it up to Chara's having his eyes on Ovechkin, and hopefully it doesn't happen again. 

(The third goal was classic Ovechkin, and one can take solace in the fact that this is the first we've heard from him all series.)

Once again, the defense was phenomenal, particularly Seidenberg and Boychuk. Once again, the third line of Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot provided dynamic production, with Rolston netting one in the second. 

Cause for Concern: Anemic production continues from the top 5 offensive weapons of Lucic, Krejci, Seguin, Marchand, Bergeron. Seguin in particular has looked hapless at every turn. Of the first two lines only the add-on Rich Peverley has provided any sort of spark. 

Nevertheless, I'm confident the B's will win the series, and the reason for that is depth. The big guns will continue to get their minutes, but so will the third (Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot) and fourth  (Paille-Campbell-Thornton) lines. And that's where Washington is doomed. By the end of the second period, Dale Hunter was barely even playing his third line, while the Bruins rotated four lines right up until the final horn. That leads to fresher legs, more and harder hits, and ultimately more goals. 

Bruins in 5. 

Coming Down the Stretch

Here is how things look for the Celtics coming down the stretch. 


@ Knicks
vs Orlando
@ Atlanta
vs Miami
vs Milwaukee


Really very little is at stake at this point. With a 4-game lead on Philadelphia in the division, the Celtics should be able to clinch the 4-seed with a 2-3 finish. I see no particular reason to pursue the 3-seed, especially if Atlanta ends up with the 5.


New York will be a tough game, the Knicks coming off a tough home defeat at the hands of the Heat. They'll be sharp, and hungry for a win, while the Celtics have looked lethargic over the weekend against the bottom-feeders of the East. Needless to say, the Heat will be tough as well, no doubt out for blood after being embarrassed twice in the past month.


I'd say the must-wins are against Orlando and Atlanta -- two potential first-round opponents that the Celtics need to beat out for home-court advantage. Luckily, the Celts are flat-out better than both of these teams, especially with the Magic still reeling from Howard issues. I see it breaking down this way:


@ Knicks     L
vs Orlando   W
@ Atlanta    W
vs Miami     L
vs Milwaukee W   


The Celtics need those two middle games against the Magic and Hawks, but aside from that I'd favor a lot of rest, especially for the Big Three, as soon as the division is locked up. 

Bruins Adjustments

So far, so good as far as defensive play is concerned. Dennis Seidenberg has been doing a (literal) bang-up job on Ovechkin and the Caps have only produced 56 shots in almost 160 minutes of play. 

Offense is a different story, having scored only 2 goals in almost 8 periods of action. Here is how the lines break down:

1. Marchand-Bergeron-Seguin: 20 SOG in 21 mins. 

2. Lucic-Krejci-Peverley: 13 SOG in 24 mins. 

3. Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot: 12 SOG in 17 mins. 

4. Paille-Campbell-Thornton: 12 SOG in 12 mins. 

Line 3 has been indisputably the best, scoring both of the goals against Holtby and creating more legitimate chances. (Just goes to show what dynamic additions Rolston and Pouliot have made in the absence of Recchi and Ryder.) Line 1 has been fine, although it's disappointing that they haven't found the net in 8 periods, and even Line 4 has looked solid in limiting playing time. 

The problem is Line 2. Looch, Krejci and Peverley have given the Bruins nothing. This is born out in the numbers (fewest SOG per playing time, about 0.5 per minute) and also plain to see when they take the ice live. Stagnant is about the only way to describe it. 

My suggestion: Up the minutes for Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot. These guys have been playing great and bringing the biggest spark to the offense. Maybe Lucic-Krejci-Peverley play more efficiently with a little more time on the bench, maybe they continue underperforming. Either way, this team needs to find some way of generating an offensive spark and I love the way that third line is playing.