Joseph Addai and the running game

I’ll always remember Joseph Addai for two things. The first is the way he and Lawrence Maroney are linked in my mind as two first-round running backs that went to the Colts and Patriots, respectively, at a time when those two teams seemed to meet in the playoffs every year. Given that Maroney is one of the more unfortunate first-round picks in Belichick’s tenure, that 2006 draft sticks with me.

The second thing Addai calls to mind is the 2006 AFC Championship game against those Colts, a game the Patriots had well in-hand before a devastating collapse in the second half. Addai gashed our defense repeatedly and was a big part of an Indianapolis offense for which the Pats had no answer; the image of Addai running it in for the winning touchdown with a minute remaining is still burned in the back of my mind. The Colts went on to defeat the Chicago Bears easily in the Super Bowl two weeks later, and I actually think of 2006 as the year we should have won our fourth Lombardi Trophy, more so than even 2007 or 2011. It’s a sad truth of fandom that the pain of Games That Could Have Been is often greater than the satisfaction of Games That Were.

Now comes the news that the Patriots are bringing Addai on board. I find that I hold no grudge against the 30 year-old, maybe because it seems like so long since there was any real heated emotion in the Patriots-Colts “rivalry.” It wouldn't hurt to make some memories of Addai that don't involve heartbreak and disappointment. It also makes sense to build depth at running back at a time when multiple-back systems are all the rage and injuries seem to plague the position. Addai has an injury history himself, having missed significant time each of the past four years and seen his production drop every season since his rookie year. Addai joins Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Stevan Ridley on the roster.

Ideally, Addai would provide some leadership and mentoring for 2011 draftees Vereen (second round) and Ridley (third round), as the latter two take the reins at RB and get the majority of the carries. Like Ridley, Addai is an LSU product, which could help legitimize his position as a role model for the younger players. I suspect that any situation in which Addai becomes the lead back means that something has gone wrong with Belichick’s master plan. Woodhead is a solid change-of-pace option, with toughness, elusiveness, and good skills as a receiver, but he isn’t the kind of talent that changes games. Vereen was injured for most of last season, and while Ridley got a fair number of carries, he had some ball-security issues that cost him playing time. With a full year of conditioning and apprenticeship under their belts, hopefully the two young ‘uns are now ready for a larger role.

Before being drafted, Vereen had a fantastic 2010-11 season at Cal, putting up 1,167 yards and 13 TDs. A track athlete in college, he’s a burner who also has the strength to take on contact, and he looked outstanding in the preseason last year until hurting his hamstring. Ridley (or, as my friends like to call him, The Second Coming) is larger and a bit more of a bruiser, providing a nice complement in the backfield. He had a nearly identical final year at Louisiana State (1,147/15 in 2010). 

Perhaps more than anything, it will be interesting to see how the two perform as pass-catchers and protectors. If they can become complete backs, they won’t come off the field much and will go a long way towards solidifying a position that hasn’t had a consistent, dynamic element in years. New England’s strong passing attack would benefit from having a legitimate rushing threat to draw attention (and safeties); the running game already has the advantage of seeing fewer men in the box, since defenses tend to post extra defensive backs against Tom Brady. At the very least, an improved rushing attack keeps opponents guessing, produces better down-and-distance situations, increases time of possession (which helps our defense quite a bit--the Pats' struggles stopping opponents on third down have resulted in lots of long series for Wilfork and co.), and could save some wear-and-tear on Brady.  

Belichick sometimes seems to go against the currents of change in the NFL -- for instance, as more and more teams have switched to 3-4 defenses, which Belichick helped popularize, the Patriots last year reverted to playing more of a 4-3 (at least nominally). It would be fun to see the Pats emphasize the running game at a time when the NFL is a pass-driven league, maybe to take advantage of defensive schemes that are increasingly geared towards stopping the quarterback.

A Guest-Written Evaluation of the 2012 Draft

The way you feel about the Patriots’ 2012 draft probably depends on how much you trust Belichick to evaluate fringe players and their fit in his system. To be clear, I would argue that the draft is at least a very good one. With New England sandwiching a few iffy moves in the middle around several fantastic picks at either end of the draft, the team made out well. But were those Day Two picks enough to put this class over the top?

It’s fair to wonder why the coaching staff’s evaluations sometimes differ so drastically from those of other teams and draft analysts. For instance, was the pick of Tavon Wilson in the middle of the second round (no. 48 overall) a big mistake, a slight reach, or just another case of a mock-draft public thinking it knows better than the Pats’ head coach? But before I get to the Wilson pick, which I would consider the turning point of this draft, let’s start with a couple big first-round selections.

As has become usual over the past few years, the Pats came into this draft loaded with early round picks. With two first-rounders and two second-rounders, I was expecting Belichick to acquire some impact talent, but I was also fairly sure that he would trade away some of those picks to keep his currency high for future years. I dreaded that we would come away from the draft, once again, with no upgrade to the pass rush despite a glaring need. Would 2012 be another year I would have to watch opposing offenses put up monster passing numbers, as the Brady-Belichick window grew that much smaller? Like I said in an email to a couple of friends the morning of draft day, “If the Patriots don't draft pass rush help with one of their first round picks this year, I will [poop building blocks].”

As we got into the middle of Round One, the player I had fallen in love with was still on the board. Chandler Jones is a raw edge rusher with incredible measurables, great athleticism, and high upside. I expected him to go in the middle of the first round, and as pick 19 approached, I figured the price for trading up from where the Pats sat at 27 was becoming reasonable enough for “Draft Miser” Belichick to consider it. Of course, no one really expected it to happen, but a guy can dream. Imagine my excitement, then, when Adam Schefter announced that the Patriots had traded up to 21 and were planning on taking Jones. I could hardly believe it. I was doubly shocked when, just a few minutes later, the Pats jumped up the board again to take LB Dont’a Hightower from Alabama. Making one first round trade-up was out of character, but two was unheard of. Two front seven defenders in Round One? Yes, please.

A few points on the picks. Let’s start with the premise that the Patriots don’t have a lot of holes--I’ll refer you to Belichickian’s roster analysis from a few weeks ago. The offense is solid from top to bottom. The run defense is respectable, with big bodies up front and strong, tackling linebackers in the middle. I’m not breaking new ground when I say the problem is the pass defense. It’s worth it to spend--even to overspend--if it means genuinely addressing your one, glaring weakness. Moreover, after being aggressive in free agency, the Patriots had already filled 74 of a potential 90 roster spots before the draft, far more than most organizations. Rather than drafting twelve middling guys and hoping to hit on a few, it made sense to target just small number of high-impact players.

The other big-picture theme has to do with defensive philosophy. Maybe this year was simply a case of the right people being available at the right point in the first round, but I’d also like to think that Belichick has come to agree with Jerry Reese (and me) when it comes to building a pass defense: it’s all about pressure. As the Giants have repeatedly demonstrated, a strong pass rush can make an average secondary look good, but even a great secondary will eventually get exposed if the quarterback has all day to throw. Do I have some bitterness and a slight inferiority complex these days when it comes to the Giants? Maybe. But instead of pouring pick after pick into defensive back busts, as the Patriots have done recently, Belichick is finally giving his secondary some help up front. I can’t pretend to understand what it takes to play the outside/rush linebacker spot in the Pats’ 3-4, but it has been beyond frustrating to watch us pass up guys like Clay Matthews and Brooks Reed every year.

Apparently, Jones and Hightower are the right “fit.” And yes, I expect Hightower to rush the passer as a Patriot despite playing mostly ILB at ‘Bama. I see him rotating part-time with Mayo and Spikes on early downs and playing outside the rest of the time. Considering that both the Ravens and Steelers were said to love Hightower, this is someone I want on my team. The AFC North powerhouses know how to pick their ‘backers. I get itchy fingers when I hear that someone might be groomed to be the “heir to Ray Lewis,” and the LaMarr Woodley comparisons don’t hurt either. It’s wishful thinking to assume Hightower will be quite that good, but even so, adding quality and depth to your linebacking corps is always a good idea.

But I think Jones is the real gem of this class. He reminds me a little of Jason Pierre-Paul coming out of college, with his combination of intriguing raw tools and huge upside. Going into the draft, JPP was considered a physical freak with classic boom/bust potential. If he ever put it together, he could be special, but the lack of refinement scared some (i.e. most) people away. The Giants took a chance. It worked. Obviously, that’s a best-case scenario for Jones. He might not be quite as physically gifted as JPP, and so might lack that top-of-the-league ceiling, but he also has a higher floor at this point in his career. A couple years from now, once Jones matures fully into his frame and has a few semesters of Belichick Academy under his belt, he could be one of the premier edge rushers in the league. Fingers crossed.

And then things got sketchy. With the sixteenth pick in the second round, the New England Patriots select... Tavon Wilson? Troy Brown’s announcement should have been spoken with rising intonation, because it sure raised some questions. Despite our abysmal history drafting defensive backs in the early rounds, we all knew secondary help was coming at some point, but Tavon Wilson? As reporters and commentators scrambled to find their non-existent notes on the Illinois safely, the consensus gradually emerged that Wilson had flown under the draft radar because... most people don’t think he’s that good. A few came to his defense: ESPN Boston’s chief Patriots propagandist Mike Reiss noted that Wilson had made seven pre-draft visits with teams. Former Illini coach Ron Zook said he knew Wilson had The Right Stuff all along. Go figure.

Now, to be fair, I’m not going to pan this pick just because McShay and Kiper say Tavon Wilson should have gone later. I’ll take Belichick’s judgement over the mob’s any day. The number of fantastic players that go unrecognized by the Combine could fill several All-Pro teams.

But: Given Belichick’s recent poor record of drafting and developing DBs, it’s fair to at least question his decisions in that area. Should Wilson emerge into a star, or even a solid regular, I’ll happily admit the Hoodie knew best. Fixing the safety position would turn this draft from "good" to "great."

Even if that’s the case, though, you wonder whether the mid-round picks could have been spent more judiciously. Since most teams had Wilson as a late-round selection, could the Patriots have taken someone else at no. 48 and then grabbed him with a later pick, maximizing value? According to most analysts, the answer is yes. There were still a lot of good players sitting there in the middle of Round Two. On the other hand, no one has the pulse of the draft like Belichick does. I’m sure the thought of waiting on Wilson occurred to him, and perhaps he felt that another team would swoop in if the Patriots tried to get cute. If that’s the case, and if the coaching staff truly felt that Wilson was their guy, then I applaud them. Safety was definitely a need, and Wilson was probably near the very top of the Patriots’ board. We mere bloggers have limited access to information, so for now we have to trust Belichick on this one.

And so the draft continued, and the Pats traded down. Several times. I’m not going to pretend I know enough about the later picks to comment on most of them. DE Jake Bequette is an interesting guy, with good size and a history of getting after the quarterback in the SEC. The rankings say Bequette was a bit of a reach, but we’re in fairly subjective territory at this point. Slot receiver Jeremy Ebert and DB Nate Ebner look like a couple more darts Belichick is hoping will stick.

Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, on the other hand, is someone to watch. Less than a year ago, he was being talked about as a first- or second-round guy. A few experts even compared him favorably to Husker teammate Prince Amukamara, the Giants’ 2011 first round selection (which, in retrospect, is probably absurd). As the college season went on, it became clear that Dennard belonged more in the second or third round, but an April 21 arrest murdered his draft status and sent him tumbling to round seven, where the Patriots gladly pounced. If all goes well, Dennard could turn into an excellent slot defender, or maybe the extra DB in nickel and dime packages. He’s no Darrelle Revis, but that’s good return on pick number 224. This is a low-risk move by the Patriots. They wrapped up their draft like they began it--on a high note.

Jones and Hightower are potential blue-chippers, and Dennard could be a steal. If Wilson and Bequette turn out to be quality players, this draft will have been pure gold. But if not, the Pats will have squandered a couple of high picks and the pundit establishment will be able to say, “I told you so.” For me, Wilson’s success or failure will provide an interesting referendum on Belichick’s ability to scout and develop his defensive secondary.

Patriots Roster Breakdown & Draft Needs

Here is Patriots' current depth chart as I see it.


OFFENSE


QB:
Tom Brady
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Mallett


RB:
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
Danny Woodhead


FB:
Spencer Larsen
Tony Fiammetta
Eric Kettani


WR:
Brandon Lloyd
Wes Welker
Donte Stallworth
Deion Branch
Anthony Gonzalez
Chad Ochocinco
Julian Edelman
Matthew Slater
Tiquan Underwood
Britt Davis


TE:
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernandez
Daniel Fells


OT:
Matt Light
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Marcus Cannon
Matt Kopa
Kyle Hix


OG:
Logan Mankins
Brian Waters
Robert Gallery
Donald Thomas


C:
Dan Connolly
Dan Koppen
Nick McDonald
Ryan Wendell


DEFENSE


DT:
Vince Wilfork
Kyle Love
Marcus Harrison
Myron Pryor
Ron Brace


DE:
Jonathan Fanene
Brandon Deaderick
Alex Silvestro


OLB:
Rob Ninkovich
Trevor Scott
Jermaine Cunningham
Markell Carter
Aaron Lavarias
Jeff Tarpinian
Tracy White


ILB:
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Bobby Carpenter
Niko Koutouvides
Dane Fletcher
Mike Rivera


CB:
Ras-I Dowling
Devin McCourty
Kyle Arrington
Will Allen
Sterling Moore
Marquice Cole


SS:
Patrick Chung


FS: 
Steve Gregory
Sergio Brown
Josh Barrett
Malcolm Williams
Ross Ventrone


Here's what I think we should do for the draft. First of all, I'd be very disappointed if Belichick used any picks on offensive players in the first two rounds. We have the best quarterback of all time and the quarterback of the future in Mallett; we have running back depth for the next 5+ years with Ridley, Vereen, and Woodhead, in addition to the new fullback options; we have two of the top five TEs in the league in addition to a top-20 as backup; we have three WRs more than we can carry on the roster; and we have enough depth at offensive line to field two starting units (Light-Mankins-Koppen-Waters-Vollmer and Solder-Thomas-Connolly-Gallery-Cannon). I wouldn't mind a late-round pick on a young WR to build depth for 3-4 years down the line, but other than that we really shouldn't be drafting offense in rounds 1 and 2. 


Defensively, here's what we need:
(1) Safety. Chung is solid at SS and hopefully Gregory will be solid at FS, but after that we have a whole lotta nothing, leaving us vulnerable to the same sort of catastrophe that we experienced last year when Chung missed games. Brown-Barrett and below simply cannot see significant playing time this year. Furthermore, Gregory has a lot of upside as a potential slot corner in nickel packages, giving us further reason to look for another safety. I would grab Mark Barron immediately if he falls to No. 27. Even though a FS would be ideal, Barron plays well in coverage. He would be a great #2 on the depth chart behind Chung, providing competition and insurance in case of another Chung injury. Or, he could transition to FS and potentially start over Gregory. Either way it would be a huge boon for the Pats if he were to drop to 27. That said, such a drop is unlikely, and so the Patriots need to take a good look at a guy like Harrison Smith as well. 
(2) Defensive Line. Wilfork needs to play fewer snaps this year for his own sake. Love has looked solid behind him, and maybe Myron Pryor can step up. I think the best thing would be to add a big boy who can play 3-4 DE, stop the run and get after the passer occasionally. Fletcher Cox or Michael Brockers would be ideal, but more realistically Devon Still or Kendall Reyes would work too. Any of these guys could play end with Wilfork/Love in the middle or tackle with Wilfork on the sideline. 
(3) Pass Rush. The Pats need to get a rush going from the OLB position. Courtney Upshaw would be a dream prospect to play across from Rob Ninkovich, making for a third-down line of Ninkovich-Mayo-Spikes-Upshaw. Wow. Other options to fill this role would be Melvin Ingram, Andre Branch, or Nick Perry. 
(4) Cornerback. Less of a need than safety. Dowling has the potential to play a shutdown corner and I think McCourty should stay at corner after the promise of his rookie year. But further insurance and competition is always a good thing. Janoris Jenkins in particular could be a steal if he drops far enough. Trumaine Johnson out of Montana would be another good late-round pick. 


All in all, the Patriots need to come out of this draft with some significant help in the front seven as well as some significant help in the secondary. They need help in both areas to contend for the Super Bowl again in 2013. 

Welcome

So, welcome. This is going to be my Boston sports blog, since I have a lot to say and nowhere to say it. I've always been a big sports fan, but sports have become a bigger part of my life in the ten months since graduating college as I've had a suspicious amount of free time on my hands. 

I live in New York but am a devoted fan of the Patriots, Bruins, Red Sox, and Celtics. The Red Sox were my first love, suffering through many traumatic defeats with them in the early 2000s, culminating in the Aaron Boone Tragedy of 2003, before standing by with my heart in my throat as they charged to a World Series in 2004 and another in 2007. I became a Patriots fan around the time of that second World Series, abandoning my random fetish for the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for my true football inheritance, a feat made easier by the signing of Randy Moss in the 2006 offseason. Once again, my first experience with my now-favorite sports franchise was tragedy. I attended the 2007 AFC Championship game, in which the then-15-0 Patriots squeaked out a feeble victory over the San Diego Chargers. Despite witnessing the win, I felt a sinking sensation throughout that game, a subconscious foreknowledge that the undefeated season was not to be. The 2007 Super Bowl and the 2012 Super Bowl of this past February share second-place honors for the heartbreaks of my sports-fan past. The 2007 loss, in particular, left me sullen in my freshman year dorm room as Giants-fan classmates littered the library with celebratory posters and commenced a douche-bag parade outside my window. 

Becoming a Celtics and Bruins fan was much easier. I had always had much sympathy for the two teams but not as much interest in the two leagues. The NBA generally began to pick up just as the Celtics amassed their juggernaut. Having watched Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker tank their way through an NBA with a chronic lack of defensive basketball and competitive spirit, I now could watch with a rooting interest as Pierce-Garnett-Allen rose to power in a league featuring more compelling teams, more competitive rivalries, increasingly passionate fan bases. The NBA became an all-around better watch, and the Celtics were at the top of it. This was all the more fun because of a Lakers fan friend from college who I mocked relentlessly as the Celtics rolled Kobe in the 2008 Finals. 

The Bruins, admittedly, entered my sports consciousness mostly due to their successes. In my youth they had always been a hapless team, much like the Celtics -- so much so that Ray Bourque had to leave for Colorado to hoist the Cup once before retiring. Like the Celtics, I was fond of the Bruins without being unduly worried about their suckiness. Moreover, people in New York don't care all that much about hockey, and my interest in the league mostly involved the Pittsburgh Penguins featuring Jagr-Lemieux and some fun Western Conference teams like the Sharks and Mighty Ducks. When the Bruins got good around 2009, I started following them with a greater interest. In typical Boston fashion, they delivered heartbreak before triumph with a sweep by the Philadelphia Flyers, a team I had always hated. But the unforgettable ride to the Cup in 2011 was well worth the wait, and the Bruins are now quite possibly the most enjoyable Boston team to watch. They are dynamic. They score goals. They scrap. They get in fights. They are quickly rising in my personal Boston sports pantheon and more than any of my other teams, they are the one I could most see myself rooting for even if they belonged to another city. 

That's the bare-bones of the story. I love all four of my teams. I've felt the pain of their losses -- the Sox in 03 and 11, the Patriots in 07 and 12, and less painfully, the Celtics in the Walker-Pierce years and the Bruins with Bourque. 

But I will readily admit that I've had a much less painful go of it than my father, uncle, and grandfather, who suffered through years of agony with a pathetic Patriots team (Grogan and Plunkett) and a cursed Red Sox team (Buckner), although also experienced some epic triumphs with the Bruins (Orr) and Celtics (Bird). 

Life's not bad for a Boston sports fan in 2012. As I write, the Celtics have the best point guard in the Eastern Conference and a legitimate shot at the title before starting the offseason rebuilding process. The Bruins are a top-5 team in the NHL, play great defense and score tons of goals, and are easily the funnest team to root for in hockey. The Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl run and poised to make another in the anemic AFC. And the Red Sox -- well, they're the Red Sox, currently struggling but one of the strongest franchises in baseball and soon to be bolstered by an up-and-coming future-GM by the name of Ben Hecht. 

Here are the most important figures since 2000.

Patriots: Have made 5 Super Bowls, won 3.

Red Sox: Have made 2 World Series and won both. 

Celtics: Have made 2 NBA Finals and won 1. 

Bruins: Have made 1 Cup Finals and won it. 

So midway through 2012, it's been 11 1/2 years since 2000 and the Boston teams have competed in 10 world championships, winning 7. You do the math. And that's not even counting the three remaining title runs of 2012: the Bruins (highly competitive), the Celtics (credible contender) and the Sox (outside shot). It's a good place to be. 

I figured I'd start this blog so that, rather than talking to myself about sports I can get down some thoughts. Hopefully I'll come up with some worthwhile.