How Can the Celtics Be Like the Spurs?

"I like role players who aren't very good but have a skill."      
-Gregg Popovich


I already know how this Celtics season is going to end. They'll win Game 7 on Saturday. Then they'll put forth a good effort but ultimately lose in 6 to a Miami team that is healthier and more talented. 


With Bradley out for the season, Ray and Stiemsma shells of themselves, and Pierce and Pietrus severely limited, the Celtics have no one to guard Wade, no bigs to provide solid minutes with KG on the bench, and just a lack of firepower overall. Their season is on the ropes. They would've had a chance against Miami -- maybe even looked like the favorites -- if they could have knocked off Atlanta and Philly in five games apiece, but now, without rest and without Bradley, the odds look insurmountable. 


Meanwhile, across the country, a similarly old and rag-tag team, the San Antonio Spurs, looks like the class of the league and a heavy favorite to knock off Miami if they can get past the Thunder. The Celtics need to become this team. 


Check out the All-NBA teams, released yesterday:


2011-12 ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM 
Forward LeBron James, Miami (118) 596 
Forward Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City (117) 591 
Center Dwight Howard, Orlando (75) 476 
Guard Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (104) 568 
Guard Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers (74) 484 

2011-12 ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM 
Forward Kevin Love, Minnesota (16) 365 
Forward Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers 170 
Center Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers (33) 400 
Guard Tony Parker, San Antonio (41) 367 
Guard Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City (5) 239 

2011-12 ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM 
Forward Carmelo Anthony, New York (1) 154 
Forward Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 136 
Center Tyson Chandler, New York (4) 60 
Guard Dwyane Wade, Miami (1) 235 
Guard Rajon Rondo, Boston (4) 142




Now think about the teams that legitimately contended for the title this year: the Spurs, Thunder, Lakers, and Clippers in the West, and the Bulls and Heat (and until recently, the Celtics) in the East. 


Those contenders fall into two main classes: the superstar-heavy teams (Thunder, Lakers, Clippers, Heat) and the depth teams (Spurs and Bulls). In the first group you have four clubs that each possess two superstars in their prime. By superstar I mean a top-10 player in the world. You've got Miami with LBJ and Wade (who, despite missing weeks with injury, finished 4 votes shy of the All-NBA second team and is clearly top-10 in the NBA). You've got the Thunder with Durant and Westbrook. You've got the Lakers with Kobe and Bynum. And you've got the Clippers with CP3 and Blake. 


In the second group, you have two teams built legitimately around depth and a team concept. The Spurs have a second team point guard in Tony Parker and then surround him with a 10-man rotation (Dunca, Diaw, Green, Leonard, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner, Neal, Splitter, and Blair) that combines savvy veterans and former all-stars with depth pieces and role players. The Bulls actually fall somewhere in between these two classes, surrounding Rose and Deng with a similarly deep cohort of Boozer, Noah, Korver, Rip, Taj, Asik, Brewer, and Watson. 


The Celtics are caught in between and need to go one way or the other as they move into the post-Big-3 era. I think they ought to move toward the latter group. 


Right now, the Celtics have an absolute maximum of 6 players you can trust to see the floor in a playoff game: Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Avery Bradley. This postseason I might not even count Ray among that group. Pietrus, Stiemsma, and Dooling would all qualify as borderline when healthy. I like Pietrus for perimeter defense and scoring. Stiemsma maybe sneaks into the bottom of an 11-man rotation, where he can play 10 solid minutes and score some with 4 of the better players. And Dooling is a good locker-room glue-guy but not much help on the court. Of these three, I think only a healthy Pietrus would see any minutes on the Spurs. 


The Celtics have the following players under contract in 2012-13 for the following prices:


Paul Pierce --   $16.7M
Rajon Rondo --   $11.0M
Brandon Bass --  $4.0M 
Avery Bradley -- $1.6M
JaJuan Johnson --$1.2M


Bringing us to a total of about $35M. If I'm Danny Ainge, I throw Garnett a 2-year, $20M offer (some thank-you money included for all he's done for the team). I bring Dooling back for $2M a year (generous but fair given his sideline and locker-room contributions). I bring Pietrus back for $1M a year (prove-it-or-you're-gone situation). And I pick up Stiemsma's $1M deal (similar prove-it situation). That gives me the entire starting lineup (Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-KG) for $44M and the only bench pieces that mattered for $4M. The only guy who leaves is Ray Allen (I'm assuming somebody will overpay for him), allowing the Celtics to bring back virtually the entire 2011-2012 contending squad almost completely intact. Maybe even amnesty JaJuan Johnson for good measure. 


The biggest difference, though, is that this team would cost $48M instead of $88M. That would basically allow the Celtics to start rebuilding the team with $30M-$40M of open cap space, without having to go through the anguish of a losing season and shitty team. Rebuilding without rebuilding.


So at this point I've got Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-KG starting and Pietrus-Dooling-Stiemsma on the bench. For $48M and if healthy, that's the outline of a Spurs-like juggernaut that could easily take on the best of the Eastern Conference. The key is using that next $30M to grab the Danny Greens, Gary Neals, Kawhi Leonards and Matt Bonners. 


That's not an easy task but it's eminently doable. It involves looking for those "role players who aren't very good but have a skill." Maybe Jeff Green comes back and contributes playing behind Pierce. Maybe I draft Draymond Green and he contributes behind Bass. Maybe I find a good young big man who can rebound, defend, and share minutes with Stiemsma. Maybe I pay up for Ersan Ilyasova. Maybe I find a couple of guys who can knock down 3s. 


Whatever course of action Ainge charts, I'd love to see a team with depth, variety, and versatility come next October. You don't need LeBron-Wade-Bosh or Durant-Westbrook-Harden to win a title in this league. In fact, that might not even be the best way to go about it. What you do need is a deep rotation that can withstand injury and a large group of players with diverse skill sets to draw upon.


The San Antonio Spurs have a machine out on the court for all 48 minutes, every night. It doesn't matter who's playing at any given time, it doesn't matter who's on the sidelines. It doesn't start or end with any one guy (although there's something to be said for the leadership of Parker and Duncan in fostering the team concept). It's about the collection of players and the team concept under which they play. And there's no reason the Celtics can't put together something similar this offseason. 

Speak of the Devils

So, I was at Madison Square Garden last night for Rangers-Devils. Watched the Devils take a 3-0 lead in the first 5 minutes of play, then slowly give it back over the next 2 and a half periods. Saw the 3-3 tie broken by Carter's game-winning goal, followed by an empty-netter to boot. Thoughts from the game:


-The Devils certainly look like the better team out there. I thought the Prust and Gaborik goals were total softies that Brodeur badly misplayed, while all 4 Devils' goals on Lundqvist were legitimate plays made by the Devils. 


-The home-ice advantage in the NHL is truly mystifying. The Rangers seem like they have a pretty fierce crowd at MSG and yet they're a paltry 6-5 there over the course of these playoffs, while they're 4-4 in road games. Same goes for the Kings, who look unbeatable on the road yet have lost two closeout games at home. Go figure. 


-Dainius Zubrus looked like he was all over the ice for NJD. Same goes for Parise. Whenever those two were out there it just seemed like the Devils completely controlled the action. 


-This whole series is a very interesting role reversal from the Rangers-Devils matchups of the 90s with the Devils' trap against the Rangers' goal-scorers. Now it's just the opposite. You've got a very aggressive Devils' attack against a defensive-minded Rangers team that wants to block shots and go on the counter. 


-The Rangers looked tired, especially in the first 10 minutes of the game and in the last 10. You could smell that last goal coming for the NJD. Guys like Staal, McDonagh, and Del Zotto looked like they just wanted to get off the ice. 


-That being said, the Rangers out-hustled and generally out-toughed the Devils the entire second period and much of the third. Prust and Gaborik were both pure hustle goals while Callahan scored on a very gritty Rangers attack. 


-That being said(2), I think the Devils are just better at this point. All their goals felt like sure things, and some of their passes in the neutral zone are just really pretty. It looked like the Rangers just didn't have an answer for some Devils attacks. 


-The "Marty" cheer after NYR tied it up was absolutely deafening. Deafening. And pretty cool, too. With all the NYR towels waving toward him it almost looked like the stadium was just collapsing in on him. And the guy deserved it -- he was awful. As bad as Lundqvist looks from the box score (4 goals on 16 shots) Brodeur looked worse based on the chances he faced. 


All in all, I'd put my money on the Devils at this point. The Rangers seem like the deeper, more athletic squad and they definitely have the better goalie, but the Devils have a much more purposeful offensive attack and what looks like more reliable pieces up and down the roster. The Rangers might have some magic left but it's tough for me to see this Devils team losing twice in a row now. 

An Old-Fashioned Bass-Kickin'

Holy Bass, Batman! Brandon Bass was unbelievable tonight: 27 pts, 9-13 FG, 9-10 FT. Unbelievable. The Celtics will never lose a game in which they get those numbers from Bass. 

To be fair, a lot of credit goes to Rondo and Pierce for assisting him on those buckets. But Bass hit jumper after jumper and he slammed home every basket in the paint, taking no chances with the Sixers' defenders. He also defended well and pulled down 6 rebounds. 

Bass played 37 minutes tonight after averaging less than 25 in these playoffs. This helped the Celtics in so many ways, even beyond the added offense. For one thing, it limited Ryan Hollins' minutes; he played only 8 after 10, 14, 16, and 15 in Games 1-4. Hollins has been lukewarm to terrible throughout this series and there is no reason he should be playing 15 with Bass playing less than 25. 

In any case, big win for the C's. Credit also to Stiemsma (10 points in 14 minutes), Rondo (13 pts / 14 asts), Truth (39 solid minutes on both sides of the ball) and KG (20 pts and a +17). 

The problem now becomes the 2-guard spot with Bradley recuperating. Bradley is arguably the second most important Celtic after Garnett (his adjusted plus-minus, for the entire season but especially these playoffs, is second only to Garnett and no one else is close) and they badly miss his defense on the perimeter. Ray Allen has looked simply awful -- clearly hindered by injury -- and looked by far the weakest member of the starting lineup tonight. That shoulder injury to Bradley could spell trouble for the C's, if not in this series than the next one. 

A close-out on Wednesday would be huge, but I have learned not to expect much when the Celtics have a series lead. Hopefully they can get it done this time in Philly. 

What Went Wrong in Game 2

Here are the +/- for the Celtics' bigs over the past two games:


Garnett  +20
Hollins  -10
Bass     -13
Stiemsma -19


versus these for the Sixers:


Brand   -4
Hawes   -7
Young   -10
Allen   +27


What these numbers say is that Garnett dominates Brand and Hawes when he is on the floor. But as soon as he comes up and Lavoy Allen gets up from the Sixers' bench, the tables are turned and Allen just shreds Hollins and Stiemsma down low. 


This is the bane of the 2012 Celtics: no quality bigs to play behind Garnett. Even calling Bass a big man is really generous; he's really a small power forward. With KG on the bench, it comes down to Hollins and Stiemsma, and they just aren't getting it done. 


The point differential is one thing, but here's another: Stiemsma and Hollins collected 1 rebound between the two of them over a combined 25 minutes of playing time. That's 1 rebound for two guys, both 7-footers, whose only responsibilities are to play defense and rebound the basketball in KG's absence. That's despicable and it's no wonder Philly is dominating the bench play. 


Other Problems:


1. That was by far the worst playoff game I've ever seen Paul Pierce play. 2-9 for 7 points with 5 turnovers was the stat line but it looked even worse than that. All 5 turnovers were hideous, a few of those shots were way off, and he just looked completely stymied for the entire game. To be fair, the defense on Iguodala was solid and included a nice block. But The Truth was nowhere to be found tonight.  


2. Brandon Bass. After being the star of the first three minutes of the game with 6 points on 3 FG, Bass proceeded to miss 9 of his next 10 shots, including several drives to the basket concluding in him losing the ball and berating the referee after the no-call. The Celtics need Bass in this series and we need him big time.


3. We are terrible with Bradley off the floor. He posted a +18 over the course of this game but that doesn't even capture the impact of his defense. Without him on the floor, Rondo, Ray, and Dooling have to work much harder and one of Turner, Holiday, and Lou ends up getting hot. Huge momentum swing with him out of the game and I really hope he is healthy. 

Round Two: Celtics-Sixers

My thoughts with Game One in the bank:

Offensively, the Celtics got very little from anyone other than KG (29 and 11) and Rondo (triple-double). Pierce had 14 but it was a quiet 14, with several borderline foul calls on sloppy-looking drives. That needs to change going forward in the series. There's no way KG will average 30 points when all is said and done, and my guess is that Pierce will continue to be limited by the combination sprained-MCL and fierce-Iggy-defense. So the Celtics need scoring from Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Mickael Pietrus if they're going to keep winning. 

I don't think increased production from the secondary scorers is too much to ask for. The Hawks were able to limit those guys by switching defenders in pick-and-roll situations, but it doesn't look like Philly plans to rely on too many switches. Off the pick-and-roll, Rondo should be able to find Allen, Pietrus, and especially Bass for open jumpers. 

Defensively, the Celtics got killed down-low. The Sixers pounded it down low to Hawes, Allen, Brand, and Young and produced easy buckets seemingly at will. It remains a mystery why they didn't keep going to Hawes late in fourth. The Sixers' dominance in the paint means that we're going to need a big series out of ... gulp ... Ryan Hollins? Stiemsma seems to have completely lost any and all spark from the regular season, leading Doc to play Hollins for big minutes throughout the Hawks series and into Game One. We need a big defensive effort from him to keep the Sixers' bigs in check. 

Overall, I worry about the Sixers' frontcourt as the series progresses. Bass evidently doesn't play a lick of defense (one of many reasons to be increasingly frustrated with his presence on the floor in key moments), leaving the Celtics with Garnett, Hollins, and Stiemsma as their only bigs. Given Garnett's age, Stiemsma's struggles and Hollins' inexperience, the matchup down-low seems to bode poorly for the C's. 

That said, the Celtics own a huge advantage in Avery Bradley. Whenever Bradley is on the floor, Doc can essentially choose one Sixers' player that he wants to shut down for the entirety of Bradley's playing time (it was Jrue Holiday in the first half and Evan Turner in the second). This will be a major boon to the Celtics in coming games and hopefully lead to reverberating frustrations for the Sixers. 

In general, the Celtics are ridiculously banged-up, while the Sixers are a good-not-great team with tremendous athleticism. The scales look pretty even to me. I think Philly might pick off one of their home games and possibly both, forcing the Celtics to forego potential rest again and fight this series well into a second week. It's essential to win out as early as possible and start resting up for the Heat, but I don't think the Celtics will be so lucky. With a tough, young, run-and-gun opponent I expect at least two losses before the flight to South Beach. 

Celtics in 6. 

Elsewhere in the NBA:

Heat-Pacers. Heat lead 1-0. 

I'd love to see the Pacers win this series, or at least push it to 6-7 games, but I'm skeptical. They just don't have enough firepower to match Wade and LeBron (who won today even without Bosh for the second half). Frank Vogel was foolish to run his mouth earlier this week, and compounded that mistake by inexplicably abandoning the obvious (and successful) strategy of feeding Hibbert and West in the low post, leading to the Heat's effortless second-half comeback. I say the Pacers notch one heroic victory before the Heat cap off another gentleman's sweep. 

Spurs-Clippers. 

Gosh. Not surprised at all by the Spurs sweep (had them in 5) but I am surprised to see the Clippers here. I guess I overestimated the Grizzlies, though, because I stand by what I wrote about them. There's really not much to this team other than Chris Paul. The Spurs are much deeper, much smarter, and dramatically more talented on the wing. Add to that that this might be the league's best coach squaring off against its worst, and it's an overwhelming advantage: San Antonio. That said, I find it hard to believe that Chris Paul doesn't snag one game out of the first four, so I'll predict once again Spurs in 5. 

Thunder-Lakers.

Boy, did the Lakers look bad against Denver. Pau with 3 points in Game 6? Bynum almost invisible on multiple nights? Kobe basically called all of them out, saying that Artest is the only teammate he can rely on to play hard and have his back. And while I do agree that Pau and Bynum are despicable and lethargic (Bynum especially), there are also basketball reasons to be cited here. The Lakers get nothing from the wings, so assuming Kobe is well covered the defense can immediately double once the ball moves down to the post. The Thunder have a huge advantage over the Nuggets in this respect because they feature two of the best post defenders in the league with Perkins and Ibaka. Perkins can cover Bynum straight-up and Ibaka should eat Gasol alive, leaving them several options to take on Kobe on the perimeter. That said, and despite the fact that I think the Lakers deserve to bow out of these playoffs as soon as possible, I don't believe in the Thunder's perimeter defense at all. I think it's as weak as Perkins and Ibaka are strong, as illustrated by Kobe terrorizing them in an impressive late-season Lakers victory. The Thunder will win but it won't be as easy as some are predicting. OKC in 7. 

The Red Sox Suck.

Wow. The Red Sox are a disgrace. 

We currently own the fourth-worst record in the Major Leagues, narrowly beating out the Twins, Royals, and Padres. Recent misadventures include a weekend sweep by the Baltimore Orioles (in Fenway no less), dropping 2 out of 3 to the mediocre-at-best Oakland A's, and, concluded just hours ago, dropping 2 out of 3 to the aforementioned hapless Royals. 

This is by far the worst Red Sox team since I've been a fan. They will be nowhere near the playoffs and with good reason. Here are the principal objects of my current ire:

1. Josh Beckett. I'm so tired of this guy and his bullshit. He was completely unapologetic after the Fried Chicken fiasco last year, despite putting on more weight and pitching worse than any other pitcher on staff. Today, it comes out that Beckett played a full round of golf last week despite nursing a tight lateral muscle, and then two days later he misses a start due to the same tightness. "I would say that was less than the best thing to do on that day off," said Bobby V. Ya think so, Bobby?

As a World Series winner, a veteran, and the No. 1 starter last season, you expect a degree of leadership and the Sox couldn't have gotten any less from Beckett over the last 10 months. So disappointing, and I would not be sad to see the two parties part ways in the near future. 

2. Clay Buchholz. I'm done waiting for this guy to come around and be the pitcher everybody thinks he can be. It's been six years now, and only one out of six with an ERA under 3. Currently boasting a 9.09 ERA on the season, and Peter Gammons reports that he's now the second pitcher ever -- in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL -- to give up 5 ER in each of his first six starts to a season. 

Apparently the Sox are trying to send him down to the minors and they feel "pretty confident" he would clear waivers. They can't move him now, though, because every potential replacement is injured.

3. Jon Lester. Normally I'm a fan, but 4.29 ERA is just not cutting it as an ace. That's a fourth or fifth starter's ERA right there. 

4. The entire bullpen. Seriously, where did we get some of these guys? Aceves looked solid last year but has blown a couple of saves already and his ERA is above 6. (Somebody recently called him a double-agent for the Yankees, which I think might be worth investigating). Vicente Padilla has given up 9 ER in 13 innings. Mark Melancon's ERA is pushing fifty. 

5. Carl Crawford. No explanation necessary. 

Top to bottom, this is easily the worst Red Sox pitching staff of the past 15 years and probably one of the worst in the league right now. Thank God for Ryan Sweeney and Will Middlebrooks or we might have the worst record in baseball. I wouldn't be surprised if we soon do. 

Finish Them!

Time to get rid of this personality-less, identity-less Hawks team. We've broken their spirit. Last night, they brought back Smith, they brought back Horford for his first minutes since January, and we blow them out of the building. We lead by 23 at half, and 37 in the third quarter. And we take a 3-1 series lead that's good for a series win 95% of the time in the 16-team playoff format.


Round 1 of the playoffs has been pretty lame. Right now we've got 5 teams up 3-1 (Sixers, Heat, Pacers, Celtics, Lakers), 1 team up 3-0 (Spurs), and 1 team already on to Round 2 with a sweep (Thunder). Only one series looks like it might get interesting, with the Clippers up 2-1 on the Grizz. 


Round 2 should be much more fun, especially Celtics-Sixers (knock) in the East and Lakers-Thunder out West. Stay tuned.