Offensively, the Celtics got very little from anyone other than KG (29 and 11) and Rondo (triple-double). Pierce had 14 but it was a quiet 14, with several borderline foul calls on sloppy-looking drives. That needs to change going forward in the series. There's no way KG will average 30 points when all is said and done, and my guess is that Pierce will continue to be limited by the combination sprained-MCL and fierce-Iggy-defense. So the Celtics need scoring from Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Mickael Pietrus if they're going to keep winning.
I don't think increased production from the secondary scorers is too much to ask for. The Hawks were able to limit those guys by switching defenders in pick-and-roll situations, but it doesn't look like Philly plans to rely on too many switches. Off the pick-and-roll, Rondo should be able to find Allen, Pietrus, and especially Bass for open jumpers.
Defensively, the Celtics got killed down-low. The Sixers pounded it down low to Hawes, Allen, Brand, and Young and produced easy buckets seemingly at will. It remains a mystery why they didn't keep going to Hawes late in fourth. The Sixers' dominance in the paint means that we're going to need a big series out of ... gulp ... Ryan Hollins? Stiemsma seems to have completely lost any and all spark from the regular season, leading Doc to play Hollins for big minutes throughout the Hawks series and into Game One. We need a big defensive effort from him to keep the Sixers' bigs in check.
Overall, I worry about the Sixers' frontcourt as the series progresses. Bass evidently doesn't play a lick of defense (one of many reasons to be increasingly frustrated with his presence on the floor in key moments), leaving the Celtics with Garnett, Hollins, and Stiemsma as their only bigs. Given Garnett's age, Stiemsma's struggles and Hollins' inexperience, the matchup down-low seems to bode poorly for the C's.
That said, the Celtics own a huge advantage in Avery Bradley. Whenever Bradley is on the floor, Doc can essentially choose one Sixers' player that he wants to shut down for the entirety of Bradley's playing time (it was Jrue Holiday in the first half and Evan Turner in the second). This will be a major boon to the Celtics in coming games and hopefully lead to reverberating frustrations for the Sixers.
In general, the Celtics are ridiculously banged-up, while the Sixers are a good-not-great team with tremendous athleticism. The scales look pretty even to me. I think Philly might pick off one of their home games and possibly both, forcing the Celtics to forego potential rest again and fight this series well into a second week. It's essential to win out as early as possible and start resting up for the Heat, but I don't think the Celtics will be so lucky. With a tough, young, run-and-gun opponent I expect at least two losses before the flight to South Beach.
Celtics in 6.
Elsewhere in the NBA:
Heat-Pacers. Heat lead 1-0.
I'd love to see the Pacers win this series, or at least push it to 6-7 games, but I'm skeptical. They just don't have enough firepower to match Wade and LeBron (who won today even without Bosh for the second half). Frank Vogel was foolish to run his mouth earlier this week, and compounded that mistake by inexplicably abandoning the obvious (and successful) strategy of feeding Hibbert and West in the low post, leading to the Heat's effortless second-half comeback. I say the Pacers notch one heroic victory before the Heat cap off another gentleman's sweep.
Spurs-Clippers.
Gosh. Not surprised at all by the Spurs sweep (had them in 5) but I am surprised to see the Clippers here. I guess I overestimated the Grizzlies, though, because I stand by what I wrote about them. There's really not much to this team other than Chris Paul. The Spurs are much deeper, much smarter, and dramatically more talented on the wing. Add to that that this might be the league's best coach squaring off against its worst, and it's an overwhelming advantage: San Antonio. That said, I find it hard to believe that Chris Paul doesn't snag one game out of the first four, so I'll predict once again Spurs in 5.
Thunder-Lakers.
Boy, did the Lakers look bad against Denver. Pau with 3 points in Game 6? Bynum almost invisible on multiple nights? Kobe basically called all of them out, saying that Artest is the only teammate he can rely on to play hard and have his back. And while I do agree that Pau and Bynum are despicable and lethargic (Bynum especially), there are also basketball reasons to be cited here. The Lakers get nothing from the wings, so assuming Kobe is well covered the defense can immediately double once the ball moves down to the post. The Thunder have a huge advantage over the Nuggets in this respect because they feature two of the best post defenders in the league with Perkins and Ibaka. Perkins can cover Bynum straight-up and Ibaka should eat Gasol alive, leaving them several options to take on Kobe on the perimeter. That said, and despite the fact that I think the Lakers deserve to bow out of these playoffs as soon as possible, I don't believe in the Thunder's perimeter defense at all. I think it's as weak as Perkins and Ibaka are strong, as illustrated by Kobe terrorizing them in an impressive late-season Lakers victory. The Thunder will win but it won't be as easy as some are predicting. OKC in 7.
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