Thursday, May 3, 2012

A Guest-Written Evaluation of the 2012 Draft

The way you feel about the Patriots’ 2012 draft probably depends on how much you trust Belichick to evaluate fringe players and their fit in his system. To be clear, I would argue that the draft is at least a very good one. With New England sandwiching a few iffy moves in the middle around several fantastic picks at either end of the draft, the team made out well. But were those Day Two picks enough to put this class over the top?

It’s fair to wonder why the coaching staff’s evaluations sometimes differ so drastically from those of other teams and draft analysts. For instance, was the pick of Tavon Wilson in the middle of the second round (no. 48 overall) a big mistake, a slight reach, or just another case of a mock-draft public thinking it knows better than the Pats’ head coach? But before I get to the Wilson pick, which I would consider the turning point of this draft, let’s start with a couple big first-round selections.

As has become usual over the past few years, the Pats came into this draft loaded with early round picks. With two first-rounders and two second-rounders, I was expecting Belichick to acquire some impact talent, but I was also fairly sure that he would trade away some of those picks to keep his currency high for future years. I dreaded that we would come away from the draft, once again, with no upgrade to the pass rush despite a glaring need. Would 2012 be another year I would have to watch opposing offenses put up monster passing numbers, as the Brady-Belichick window grew that much smaller? Like I said in an email to a couple of friends the morning of draft day, “If the Patriots don't draft pass rush help with one of their first round picks this year, I will [poop building blocks].”

As we got into the middle of Round One, the player I had fallen in love with was still on the board. Chandler Jones is a raw edge rusher with incredible measurables, great athleticism, and high upside. I expected him to go in the middle of the first round, and as pick 19 approached, I figured the price for trading up from where the Pats sat at 27 was becoming reasonable enough for “Draft Miser” Belichick to consider it. Of course, no one really expected it to happen, but a guy can dream. Imagine my excitement, then, when Adam Schefter announced that the Patriots had traded up to 21 and were planning on taking Jones. I could hardly believe it. I was doubly shocked when, just a few minutes later, the Pats jumped up the board again to take LB Dont’a Hightower from Alabama. Making one first round trade-up was out of character, but two was unheard of. Two front seven defenders in Round One? Yes, please.

A few points on the picks. Let’s start with the premise that the Patriots don’t have a lot of holes--I’ll refer you to Belichickian’s roster analysis from a few weeks ago. The offense is solid from top to bottom. The run defense is respectable, with big bodies up front and strong, tackling linebackers in the middle. I’m not breaking new ground when I say the problem is the pass defense. It’s worth it to spend--even to overspend--if it means genuinely addressing your one, glaring weakness. Moreover, after being aggressive in free agency, the Patriots had already filled 74 of a potential 90 roster spots before the draft, far more than most organizations. Rather than drafting twelve middling guys and hoping to hit on a few, it made sense to target just small number of high-impact players.

The other big-picture theme has to do with defensive philosophy. Maybe this year was simply a case of the right people being available at the right point in the first round, but I’d also like to think that Belichick has come to agree with Jerry Reese (and me) when it comes to building a pass defense: it’s all about pressure. As the Giants have repeatedly demonstrated, a strong pass rush can make an average secondary look good, but even a great secondary will eventually get exposed if the quarterback has all day to throw. Do I have some bitterness and a slight inferiority complex these days when it comes to the Giants? Maybe. But instead of pouring pick after pick into defensive back busts, as the Patriots have done recently, Belichick is finally giving his secondary some help up front. I can’t pretend to understand what it takes to play the outside/rush linebacker spot in the Pats’ 3-4, but it has been beyond frustrating to watch us pass up guys like Clay Matthews and Brooks Reed every year.

Apparently, Jones and Hightower are the right “fit.” And yes, I expect Hightower to rush the passer as a Patriot despite playing mostly ILB at ‘Bama. I see him rotating part-time with Mayo and Spikes on early downs and playing outside the rest of the time. Considering that both the Ravens and Steelers were said to love Hightower, this is someone I want on my team. The AFC North powerhouses know how to pick their ‘backers. I get itchy fingers when I hear that someone might be groomed to be the “heir to Ray Lewis,” and the LaMarr Woodley comparisons don’t hurt either. It’s wishful thinking to assume Hightower will be quite that good, but even so, adding quality and depth to your linebacking corps is always a good idea.

But I think Jones is the real gem of this class. He reminds me a little of Jason Pierre-Paul coming out of college, with his combination of intriguing raw tools and huge upside. Going into the draft, JPP was considered a physical freak with classic boom/bust potential. If he ever put it together, he could be special, but the lack of refinement scared some (i.e. most) people away. The Giants took a chance. It worked. Obviously, that’s a best-case scenario for Jones. He might not be quite as physically gifted as JPP, and so might lack that top-of-the-league ceiling, but he also has a higher floor at this point in his career. A couple years from now, once Jones matures fully into his frame and has a few semesters of Belichick Academy under his belt, he could be one of the premier edge rushers in the league. Fingers crossed.

And then things got sketchy. With the sixteenth pick in the second round, the New England Patriots select... Tavon Wilson? Troy Brown’s announcement should have been spoken with rising intonation, because it sure raised some questions. Despite our abysmal history drafting defensive backs in the early rounds, we all knew secondary help was coming at some point, but Tavon Wilson? As reporters and commentators scrambled to find their non-existent notes on the Illinois safely, the consensus gradually emerged that Wilson had flown under the draft radar because... most people don’t think he’s that good. A few came to his defense: ESPN Boston’s chief Patriots propagandist Mike Reiss noted that Wilson had made seven pre-draft visits with teams. Former Illini coach Ron Zook said he knew Wilson had The Right Stuff all along. Go figure.

Now, to be fair, I’m not going to pan this pick just because McShay and Kiper say Tavon Wilson should have gone later. I’ll take Belichick’s judgement over the mob’s any day. The number of fantastic players that go unrecognized by the Combine could fill several All-Pro teams.

But: Given Belichick’s recent poor record of drafting and developing DBs, it’s fair to at least question his decisions in that area. Should Wilson emerge into a star, or even a solid regular, I’ll happily admit the Hoodie knew best. Fixing the safety position would turn this draft from "good" to "great."

Even if that’s the case, though, you wonder whether the mid-round picks could have been spent more judiciously. Since most teams had Wilson as a late-round selection, could the Patriots have taken someone else at no. 48 and then grabbed him with a later pick, maximizing value? According to most analysts, the answer is yes. 
There were still a lot of good players sitting there in the middle of Round Two. On the other hand, no one has the pulse of the draft like Belichick does. I’m sure the thought of waiting on Wilson occurred to him, and perhaps he felt that another team would swoop in if the Patriots tried to get cute. If that’s the case, and if the coaching staff truly felt that Wilson was their guy, then I applaud them. Safety was definitely a need, and Wilson was probably near the very top of the Patriots’ board. We mere bloggers have limited access to information, so for now we have to trust Belichick on this one.

And so the draft continued, and the Pats traded down. Several times. I’m not going to pretend I know enough about the later picks to comment on most of them. DE Jake Bequette is an interesting guy, with good size and a history of getting after the quarterback in the SEC. The rankings say Bequette was a bit of a reach, but we’re in fairly subjective territory at this point. Slot receiver Jeremy Ebert and DB Nate Ebner look like a couple more darts Belichick is hoping will stick.

Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, on the other hand, is someone to watch. Less than a year ago, he was being talked about as a first- or second-round guy. A few experts even compared him favorably to Husker teammate Prince Amukamara, the Giants’ 2011 first round selection (which, in retrospect, is probably absurd). As the college season went on, it became clear that Dennard belonged more in the second or third round, but an April 21 arrest murdered his draft status and sent him tumbling to round seven, where the Patriots gladly pounced. If all goes well, Dennard could turn into an excellent slot defender, or maybe the extra DB in nickel and dime packages. He’s no Darrelle Revis, but that’s good return on pick number 224. This is a low-risk move by the Patriots. They wrapped up their draft like they began it--on a high note.

Jones and Hightower are potential blue-chippers, and Dennard could be a steal. If Wilson and Bequette turn out to be quality players, this draft will have been pure gold. But if not, the Pats will have squandered a couple of high picks and the pundit establishment will be able to say, “I told you so.” For me, Wilson’s success or failure will provide an interesting referendum on Belichick’s ability to scout and develop his defensive secondary.

No comments:

Post a Comment